Adding uncertainty to PV and electrolyzers

premise/data/fuels/fuel_groups.yaml

@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ gas:
 
 hydrogen:
   - hydrogen, from petroleum
-  - hydrogen, from electrolysis
+  - hydrogen, from electrolysis, PEM
   - hydrogen, from solar
   - hydrogen, from pyrolysis
   - hydrogen, from biomass

premise/data/fuels/hydrogen_efficiency_parameters.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,4 @@
-from electrolysis (PEM):
-  name: hydrogen production, gaseous, 30 bar, from PEM electrolysis, from grid electricity
-  var: hydrogen, from electrolysis
+hydrogen, from electrolysis, PEM:
   feedstock name: electricity, low voltage
   feedstock unit: kilowatt hour
   efficiency:
@@ -14,63 +12,80 @@ from electrolysis (PEM):
       maximum: 52.5
   floor value: 45.3
 
-from SMR of biogas, with CCS:
-  name: hydrogen production, steam methane reforming, from biomethane, with CCS
-  var: hydrogen, from biogas, with CCS
+hydrogen, from electrolysis, AEC:
+  feedstock name: electricity, low voltage
+  feedstock unit: kilowatt hour
+  efficiency:
+    2020:
+      mean: 51.8
+      minimum: 48.7
+      maximum: 54.9
+    2050:
+      mean: 48.5
+      minimum: 47.1
+      maximum: 49.9
+  floor value: 47.1
+
+hydrogen, from electrolysis, SOEC:
+  feedstock name: electricity, low voltage
+  feedstock unit: kilowatt hour
+  efficiency:
+    2020:
+      mean: 42.3
+      minimum: 41.2
+      maximum: 43.4
+    2050:
+      mean: 40.6
+      minimum: 40.0
+      maximum: 41.2
+  floor value: 40.0
+
+hydrogen, from biogas, with CCS:
   feedstock name: biomethane
   feedstock unit: kilogram
   floor value: 3.2
-from SMR of biogas:
-  name: hydrogen production, steam methane reforming, from biomethane
-  var: hydrogen, from biogas
+
+hydrogen, from biogas:
   feedstock name: biomethane
   feedstock unit: kilogram
   floor value: 3.2
-from SMR of natural gas:
-  name: hydrogen production, steam methane reforming
-  var: hydrogen, from natural gas
+
+hydrogen, from natural gas:
   feedstock name: natural gas
   feedstock unit: cubic meter
   floor value: 3.5
-from SMR of natural gas, with CCS:
-  name: hydrogen production, steam methane reforming, with CCS
-  var: hydrogen, from natural gas, with CCS
+
+hydrogen, from natural gas, with CCS:
   feedstock name: natural gas
   feedstock unit: cubic meter
   floor value: 3.5
-from gasification of biomass, with CCS:
-  name: hydrogen production, gaseous, 25 bar, from gasification of woody biomass in entrained flow gasifier, with CCS, at gasification plant
-  var: hydrogen, from biomass, with CCS
+
+hydrogen, from biomass, with CCS:
   feedstock name: wood chips
   feedstock unit: kilogram
   floor value: 7
-from gasification of biomass:
-  name: hydrogen production, gaseous, 25 bar, from gasification of woody biomass in entrained flow gasifier, at gasification plant
-  var: hydrogen, from biomass
+
+hydrogen, from biomass:
   feedstock name: wood chips
   feedstock unit: kilogram
   floor value: 7
-from coal gasification:
-  name: hydrogen production, coal gasification
-  var: hydrogen, from coal
+
+hydrogen, from coal:
   feedstock name: hard coal
   feedstock unit: kilogram
   floor value: 5
-from coal gasification, with CCS:
-  name: hydrogen production, coal gasification, with CCS
-  var: hydrogen, from coal, with CCS
+
+hydrogen, from coal, with CCS:
   feedstock name: hard coal
   feedstock unit: kilogram
   floor value: 5
-from pyrolysis:
-  name: hydrogen production, gaseous, 100 bar, from methane pyrolysis
-  var: hydrogen, from pyrolysis
+
+hydrogen, from pyrolysis:
   feedstock name: natural gas
   feedstock unit: cubic meter
   floor value: 6.5
-from thermochemical water splitting:
-  name: hydrogen production, gaseous, 25 bar, from thermochemical water splitting, at solar tower
-  var: hydrogen, from solar
+
+hydrogen, from solar:
   feedstock name: Energy, solar, converted
   feedstock unit: megajoule
   floor value: 180

premise/data/renewables/efficiency_solar_PV.csv

@@ -1,23 +1,28 @@
-technology;year;efficiency
-micro-Si;2010;0.1
-single-Si;2010;0.151
-multi-Si;2010;0.14
-CIGS;2010;0.11
-CIS;2010;0.11
-CdTe;2010;0.1
-micro-Si;2020;0.119
-single-Si;2020;0.179
-multi-Si;2020;0.168
-perovskite;2020;0.25
-GaAs;2020;0.28
-CIGS;2020;0.14
-CIS;2020;0.14
-CdTe;2020;0.168
-micro-Si;2050;0.125
-single-Si;2050;0.267
-multi-Si;2050;0.244
-CIGS;2050;0.234
-CIS;2050;0.234
-CdTe;2050;0.21
-perovskite;2050;0.25
-GaAs;2050;0.28
+technology,year,mean,min,max,source
+micro-Si,2010,0.1,0.075,0.125,Past eff: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3a99654f-ffff-469f-b83c-bf0386ed8537/pv_roadmap.pdf; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%
+single-Si,2010,0.15,0.11325,0.18875,Past eff: https://treeze.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/downloads/Publications/Case_Studies/Energy/Future-PV-LCA-IEA-PVPS-Task-12-March-2015.pdf; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%
+multi-Si,2010,0.14,0.105,0.175,Past eff: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3a99654f-ffff-469f-b83c-bf0386ed8537/pv_roadmap.pdf; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%
+CIGS,2010,0.11,0.0825,0.1375,Past eff: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3a99654f-ffff-469f-b83c-bf0386ed8537/pv_roadmap.pdf; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%
+CIS,2010,0.11,0.0825,0.1375,Past eff: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3a99654f-ffff-469f-b83c-bf0386ed8537/pv_roadmap.pdf; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%
+CdTe,2010,0.1,0.075,0.125,Past eff: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/3a99654f-ffff-469f-b83c-bf0386ed8537/pv_roadmap.pdf; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%
+GaAs,2010,0.28,0.21,0.35,Past efficiencies same as current.
+perovskite,2010,0.25,0.1875,0.3125,Past efficiencies same as current.
+micro-Si,2020,0.12,0.08925,0.14875,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+single-Si,2020,0.18,0.13425,0.22375,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+multi-Si,2020,0.17,0.126,0.21,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+perovskite,2020,0.25,0.1875,0.3125,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+GaAs,2020,0.28,0.21,0.35,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+CIGS,2020,0.14,0.105,0.175,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+CIS,2020,0.14,0.105,0.175,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+CdTe,2020,0.17,0.126,0.21,Current eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+single-Si,2023,0.22,0.174,0.235,https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
+CdTe,2023,0.19,0.17,0.2,https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927024823001101; https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
+CIGS,2023,0.15,0.11,0.19,https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
+micro-Si,2050,0.13,0.09375,0.15625,https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
+single-Si,2050,0.27,0.20475,0.34125,https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
+multi-Si,2050,0.24,0.183,0.305,https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
+CIGS,2050,0.23,0.1755,0.2925,"https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf. For future efficiency: own assumption, -+25%."
+CIS,2050,0.23,0.1755,0.2925,Future eff: Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report 2019; Uncertainty: Own assumption: -+25%.
+CdTe,2050,0.226,0.22,0.25,https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927024823001101
+perovskite,2050,0.252,0.22,0.3125,https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2022/se/d2se00096b; https://www.csem.ch/en/news/photovoltaic-technology-breakthrough-achieving-31.25-efficiency/
+GaAs,2050,0.28,0.25,0.28,https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11367-020-01791-z

premise/electricity.py

@@ -1454,32 +1454,50 @@ def update_efficiency_of_solar_pv(self) -> None:
                 current_eff = power / max_power
 
                 if self.year in module_eff.coords["year"].values:
-                    new_eff = module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, year=self.year).values
+                    new_mean_eff = module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, year=self.year, efficiency_type="mean").values
+                    new_min_eff = module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, year=self.year, efficiency_type="min").values
+                    new_max_eff = module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, year=self.year, efficiency_type="max").values
                 else:
-                    new_eff = (
-                        module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech)
+                    new_mean_eff = (
+                        module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, efficiency_type="mean")
+                        .interp(year=self.year, kwargs={"fill_value": "extrapolate"})
+                        .values
+                    )
+                    new_min_eff = (
+                        module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, efficiency_type="min")
+                        .interp(year=self.year, kwargs={"fill_value": "extrapolate"})
+                        .values
+                    )
+                    new_max_eff = (
+                        module_eff.sel(technology=pv_tech, efficiency_type="max")
                         .interp(year=self.year, kwargs={"fill_value": "extrapolate"})
                         .values
                     )
 
                 # in case self.year <10 or >2050
-                new_eff = np.clip(new_eff, 0.1, 0.27)
+                new_mean_eff = np.clip(new_mean_eff, 0.1, 0.30)
+                new_min_eff = np.clip(new_min_eff, 0.1, 0.30)
+                new_max_eff = np.clip(new_max_eff, 0.1, 0.30)
 
                 # We only update the efficiency if it is higher than the current one.
-                if new_eff.sum() > current_eff:
-                    exc["amount"] *= float(current_eff / new_eff)
+                if new_mean_eff.sum() > current_eff:
+                    exc["amount"] *= float(current_eff / new_mean_eff)
+                    exc["uncertainty type"] = 5
+                    exc["loc"] = exc["amount"]
+                    exc["minimum"] = exc["amount"] * (new_min_eff / new_mean_eff)
+                    exc["maximum"] = exc["amount"] * (new_max_eff / new_mean_eff)
 
                     dataset["comment"] = (
                         f"`premise` has changed the efficiency "
                         f"of this photovoltaic installation "
-                        f"from {int(current_eff * 100)} pct. to {int(new_eff * 100)} pt."
+                        f"from {int(current_eff * 100)} pct. to {int(new_mean_eff * 100)} pt."
                     )
 
                     if "log parameters" not in dataset:
                         dataset["log parameters"] = {}
 
                     dataset["log parameters"].update({"old efficiency": current_eff})
-                    dataset["log parameters"].update({"new efficiency": new_eff})
+                    dataset["log parameters"].update({"new efficiency": new_mean_eff})
 
                     # add to log
                     self.write_log(dataset=dataset, status="updated")