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Using Time Series Analysis and Regression Analysis to determine the volatility of the Yen and when is the optimal time to buy/sell.

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A-Yen-For-The-Future

Time Series Analysis Conclusion

Based on your time series analysis, would you buy the yen now?

I would sell the Yen now because after analysing the data, the value is expected to take a sharp dive. With the addition of the volatility data, I wouldn't feel comfortable buying the Yen at this point, but I would consider opening a 'short' position.

Is the risk of the yen expected to increase or decrease?

The volatility of the Yen is expected to increase meaning a higher risk for investment.

Based on the model evaluation, would you feel confident in using these models for trading?

Based on the model evaluation, I would need to analyze other elements of the investment before initiating a trade. There are a lot of other factors that are involved in currency options that we did'nt evaluate here. If other factors were stable then I might use the model as a part of my decision.

Regression Analysis Conclusion

The predicted returns showed more volatility in the Yen Futures than the actual results and the predictions were sometimes opposite of the real data, meaning that the historical accuracy was not up to par. As an investor I'm not sure the model would be appropriate for predicting Yen futures going forward.

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