Replicator fixes (#673)

prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/deploy.py

@@ -4,9 +4,6 @@
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import xdai_type
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.loggers import logger
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.markets import MarketType
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen import (
-    redeem_from_all_user_positions,
-)
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.langfuse_ import observe
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import utcnow
 from pydantic import BaseModel
@@ -18,7 +15,7 @@
     omen_unfund_replicated_known_markets_tx,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent.agents.replicate_to_omen_agent.omen_resolve_replicated import (
-    omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx,
+    omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent.utils import APIKeys
 
@@ -62,20 +59,18 @@ def replicate(self, settings: ReplicateSettings) -> None:
         keys = APIKeys()
         now = utcnow()
 
-        logger.info(
-            f"Finalising, resolving and claiming back xDai from existing markets replicated by {keys.bet_from_address}."
-        )
-        omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
-            keys, realitio_bond=REPLICATOR_BOND
-        )
-
+        # Unfund markets as the first thing, to get back resources that we can use later in this script.
         logger.info(
             f"Unfunding soon to be known markets replicated by {keys.bet_from_address}."
         )
         omen_unfund_replicated_known_markets_tx(keys, saturation_above_threshold=0.9)
 
-        logger.info("Redeeming funds from previously unfunded markets.")
-        redeem_from_all_user_positions(keys)
+        logger.info(
+            f"Finalising, resolving and claiming back xDai from existing markets replicated by {keys.bet_from_address}."
+        )
+        omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx(
+            keys, realitio_bond=REPLICATOR_BOND
+        )
 
         for replicate_config in settings.REPLICATE:
             if now.timetuple().tm_yday % replicate_config.every_n_days:

prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/omen_replicate.py

@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@
     OmenAgentMarket,
     omen_create_market_tx,
     omen_remove_fund_market_tx,
+    redeem_from_all_user_positions,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen_contracts import sDaiContract
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen_subgraph_handler import (
@@ -226,7 +227,7 @@ def omen_unfund_replicated_known_markets_tx(
         # Optionally, if `saturation_above_threshold` is provided, skip markets that are not saturated to leave some free money motivation for agents.
         if (
             saturation_above_threshold is not None
-            and not market.is_resolved
+            and market.is_open
             and not (
                 market.current_p_yes > saturation_above_threshold
                 or market.current_p_no > saturation_above_threshold
@@ -244,3 +245,6 @@ def omen_unfund_replicated_known_markets_tx(
             market=OmenAgentMarket.from_data_model(market),
             shares=None,
         )
+
+    logger.info("Redeeming funds from unfunded markets.")
+    redeem_from_all_user_positions(api_keys)

prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/omen_resolve_replicated.py

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 from datetime import timedelta
 from functools import partial
 
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import (
     ChecksumAddress,
     HexAddress,
@@ -15,6 +14,9 @@
     RealityQuestion,
     RealityResponse,
 )
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen import (
+    redeem_from_all_user_positions,
+)
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen_resolving import (
     Resolution,
     claim_bonds_on_realitio_questions,
@@ -31,6 +33,11 @@
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import DatetimeUTC, utcnow
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 
+from prediction_market_agent.agents.ofvchallenger_agent.ofv_resolver import (
+    ofv_answer_binary_question,
+)
+from prediction_market_agent.utils import APIKeys
+
 
 class ClaimResult(BaseModel):
     claimed_question_ids: list[HexBytes]
@@ -44,7 +51,7 @@ class FinalizeAndResolveResult(BaseModel):
 
 
 @observe()
-def omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
+def omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx(
     api_keys: APIKeys,
     realitio_bond: xDai,
 ) -> FinalizeAndResolveResult:
@@ -54,6 +61,9 @@ def omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
 
     now = utcnow()
 
+    # Claim back as the first thing, so we have resources to work with.
+    claimed = claim_all_bonds_on_reality(api_keys, finalized_before=now)
+
     # Fetch markets created by us that are already open, but no answer was submitted yet or they are challengable.
     get_omen_binary_markets_common_filters = partial(
         OmenSubgraphHandler().get_omen_binary_markets,
@@ -77,7 +87,7 @@ def omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
         (
             m,
             (
-                find_resolution_on_other_markets(m)
+                find_resolution_on_other_markets_or_using_resolver(m, api_keys)
                 if not is_invalid(m.question_title)
                 else Resolution.CANCEL
             ),
@@ -114,18 +124,51 @@ def omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
         api_keys,
         created_finalized_markets,
     )
+    # Redeem from the resolved markets.
+    redeem_from_all_user_positions(api_keys)
     balances_after_resolution = get_balances(public_key)
     logger.info(f"{balances_after_resolution=}")
 
-    claimed = claim_all_bonds_on_reality(api_keys, finalized_before=now)
-
     return FinalizeAndResolveResult(
         finalized=finalized_markets,
         resolved=resolved_markets,
         claimed=claimed,
     )
 
 
+@observe()
+def find_resolution_on_other_markets_or_using_resolver(
+    market: OmenMarket,
+    api_keys: APIKeys,
+) -> Resolution | None:
+    # Try to find resolution on other markets.
+    resolution = find_resolution_on_other_markets(market)
+
+    # Sometimes questions can be no longer found (for example Manifold allows to rephrase questions),
+    # in that case, resolve it with our resolver.
+    if resolution is None:
+        logger.info(
+            "[REPLICATOR-RESOLUTION-NOT-FOUND] Resolution not found on other markets. Trying to resolve manually."
+        )
+        try:
+            fact_check = ofv_answer_binary_question(market.question_title, api_keys)
+            resolution = (
+                None
+                if fact_check is None or fact_check.factuality is None
+                else Resolution.from_bool(fact_check.factuality)
+            )
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.exception(
+                f"Exception while getting factuality for market {market.url=}. Skipping. Exception: {e}"
+            )
+    else:
+        logger.info(
+            f"[REPLICATOR-RESOLUTION-FOUND] Resolution {resolution} found on other markets for {market.url=}."
+        )
+
+    return resolution
+
+
 @observe()
 def filter_replicated_markets_to_answer(
     markets: list[tuple[OmenMarket, Resolution | None]],

pyproject.toml

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ langchain-community = "*"
 langchain-openai = "*"
 numexpr = "*"
 flaml = "^2.2.0,<2.3.0" # Bug in newer version, because they started importing xgboost, without requiring it as a dependency.
-beautifulsoup4 = "*"
+beautifulsoup4 = "^4,<4.13" # Bug in typing of newer version
 google-search-results = "*"
 pytest = "*"
 llama-index = "~0.9.0"
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ poetry = "^1.7.1"
 poetry-plugin-export = "^1.6.0"
 functions-framework = "^3.5.0"
 cron-validator = "^1.0.8"
-prediction-market-agent-tooling = "0.57.14"
+prediction-market-agent-tooling = "0.57.16"
 pydantic-settings = "^2.1.0"
 autoflake = "^2.2.1"
 isort = "^5.13.2"

scripts/replicate_for_hackathon.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
     omen_replicate_from_tx,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent.agents.replicate_to_omen_agent.omen_resolve_replicated import (
-    omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx,
+    omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent.utils import APIKeys
 
@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ def main(
         )
 
     if resolve:
-        omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
+        omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx(
             keys, realitio_bond=OMEN_DEFAULT_REALITIO_BOND_VALUE
         )
         return

scripts/replicator_stats.py

@@ -1,12 +1,17 @@
-from datetime import datetime, timedelta
+from datetime import timedelta
 from pprint import pprint
 
 import typer
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen import OmenAgentMarket
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen_contracts import (
+    OmenRealitioContract,
+)
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.markets.omen.omen_subgraph_handler import (
     OmenSubgraphHandler,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.parallelism import par_generator
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import utcnow
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.web3_utils import wei_to_xdai
 from tqdm import tqdm
 
 from prediction_market_agent.agents.replicate_to_omen_agent.deploy import (
@@ -15,7 +20,7 @@
 
 
 def main() -> None:
-    now = datetime.now()
+    now = utcnow()
     markets = OmenSubgraphHandler().get_omen_binary_markets(
         limit=None,
         creator=REPLICATOR_ADDRESS,
@@ -43,10 +48,22 @@ def main() -> None:
     markets_closing_in_more_than_30_days = [
         m for m in markets if m.opening_datetime > now + timedelta(days=30)
     ]
+    markets_closing_in_more_than_3_days = [
+        m for m in markets if m.opening_datetime > now + timedelta(days=3)
+    ]
+    markets_closing_in_more_than_1_days = [
+        m for m in markets if m.opening_datetime > now + timedelta(days=1)
+    ]
+
+    reality_balance = wei_to_xdai(OmenRealitioContract().balanceOf(REPLICATOR_ADDRESS))
 
     stats = {
+        "reality_balance": reality_balance,
         "markets created": len(markets),
         "open markets": len([m for m in markets if m.is_open]),
+        "markets without an answer": len(
+            [m for m in markets if m.currentAnswer is None]
+        ),
         "liquidity in open markets": sum(
             [
                 OmenAgentMarket.from_data_model(m).get_liquidity().amount
@@ -61,6 +78,18 @@ def main() -> None:
                 if not m.is_open
             ]
         ),
+        "liquidity in open markets closing in more than 1 days": sum(
+            [
+                OmenAgentMarket.from_data_model(m).get_liquidity().amount
+                for m in markets_closing_in_more_than_1_days
+            ]
+        ),
+        "liquidity in open markets closing in more than 3 days": sum(
+            [
+                OmenAgentMarket.from_data_model(m).get_liquidity().amount
+                for m in markets_closing_in_more_than_3_days
+            ]
+        ),
         "liquidity in open markets closing in more than 30 days": sum(
             [
                 OmenAgentMarket.from_data_model(m).get_liquidity().amount
@@ -71,7 +100,7 @@ def main() -> None:
             [
                 OmenAgentMarket.from_data_model(m).get_liquidity().amount
                 for m in markets
-                if m.opening_datetime > datetime.now() + timedelta(days=180)
+                if m.opening_datetime > now + timedelta(days=180)
             ]
         ),
         "avg bets per market closing in less than 30 days": (

scripts/resolve_replicated_on_omen.py

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 from pprint import pprint
 
 import typer
-from prediction_market_agent_tooling.config import APIKeys
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.gtypes import private_key_type
 from web3 import Web3
 
 from prediction_market_agent.agents.replicate_to_omen_agent.deploy import (
     REPLICATOR_BOND,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent.agents.replicate_to_omen_agent.omen_resolve_replicated import (
-    omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx,
+    omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx,
 )
+from prediction_market_agent.utils import APIKeys
 
 # Use without the pretty exceptions, because they make the error stack unusable here.
 app = typer.Typer(pretty_exceptions_show_locals=False)
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ def main(
         SAFE_ADDRESS=safe_address_checksum,
     )
 
-    result = omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_markets_based_on_others_tx(
+    result = omen_finalize_and_resolve_and_claim_back_all_replicated_markets_tx(
         api_keys=api_keys, realitio_bond=REPLICATOR_BOND
     )
     pprint(result.model_dump())