Welcome to the New Hospital Programme demand and capacity modelling tool.
This repository contains the model code but there are several other repositories which contain useful tools to explore the data underpinning and set the parameters for the model, as well as to explore model outputs. An overview of how the different tools interact with each other is available.
The methodology underpinning this model is outlined in this simple one page explainer. We have a more technical project information site which includes further details about the model and the data that the model was built on.
Please note that it is important that the parameters of the model are set with great care and with proper support. It is important also that healthcare system partners are appropriately involved in parameter setting. For a description of the full process and support provision that is necessary to ensure the model functions well please see the NHS Futures workspace
We are working on providing synthetic data so that interested parties can run the model locally to see how it works.
Assuming you have your data in the correct format, store it in the data folder. Further details on the correct formatting for the data to follow.
The model runs using parameters that are set in a JSON file.
This package is built using uv. If you have uv installed, run the model using: uv run -m nhp.model path/to/params.json -d path/to/data
- Install the
nhp_modelpackage usingpip install . - Run the model using:
python -m nhp.model path/to/params.json -d path/to/data
The model is deployed to Azure Container Registry and GitHub Container Registry on pull requests, tagging the container as nhp_model:dev, and on releases its deployed to nhp_model:v*.*.* and nhp_model:latest.
Parameters for the model are set in JSON format; an example can be seen in queue/params-sample.json. As the model develops, requirements for this JSON file change over time. We use JSON schema to manage changes to the parameters file. From model v3.5 onwards, these are deployed to GitHub pages, following this pattern:
- on merge to
main, the schema is deployed tohttps://the-strategy-unit.github.io/nhp_model/dev/params-schema.json - on release of new model version vX.X, the schema is deployed to
https://the-strategy-unit.github.io/nhp_model/vX.X/params-schema.json