Source for data collection: As a board game geek! I have the munchikn board game, I manually inputted each card and using excel (i sped it up with my advanced excel formulas and shortcuts), after which i granularized them further to derive 4 additional datasets.
• Analyzing the probabilities of drawing each card from the respective deck is one way. However, to truly understand and predict data accurately, the data should be granular ized.
• The game “Munchkin,” for those unfamiliar, is an RPG dungeon-crawling game. I chose it to gain a significant advantage in future playthroughs. By predicting or understanding the probabilities associated with each card, I can develop better tactics and strategies than my opponents
I used hypergeometric probability formula to calculate probability of drawing 'n' cards of interest with a finite deck
Summary of the Data
My original question was “which Munchkin card was most likely to be drawn from each deck?"
i) In Door Deck, “Monster cards” are the highest in number with population 37 out of 95 cards.
• Within Monster cards, there are “level 1” and “level 2” monsters that have the highest in number with population 10 out of 37 cards.
ii) In the Treasure Deck, “Usable Once only Cards” are the highest in number with population 34 out of 73 cards.
• Within Treasure cards, there are “Misc Ability” with 14 cards out of 34.
iii) Also the probability of drawing card without replacement, gave the probability on draw ing single, multiple and a specific card.
If i knew this information or had this a couple days back, i wouldnt’ve lost the game of munchkins.
• From the hypergeometric probability calculation, i was able to figure out that, after the initial draw of 4 cards from each deck (8) and in a 4 player game. When kicking the door, you have the probability of 12.65% to kick open a level 1 or 2 monster.
• Also a 44.3% chance to kick open any monster card as opposed to a 55.7% chance to kick open a non monster card. Which is astounding, now the future games, i would play cleric to avoid kicking open to door and keep track of monster and non monster cards to play to my advantage.