Bill review: Reenact EITC 5% (NC)

[DTrim99]

Bill Review: Reenact the Earned Income Tax Credit

Reform ID: nc-s211 | State: NC
Bill text: https://www.ncleg.gov/BillLookup/2025/S211
Description: Reenacts NC state EITC at 5% of federal credit for tax years 2025-2027. Sunsets after December 31, 2027.

Merging this PR will publish the bill to the dashboard.

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What we model

Provision	Parameter	Current	Proposed
NC State EITC	gov.contrib.states.nc.eitc.match	None (eliminated in 2014)	5% of federal EITC

Validation

External estimates

Source	Estimate	Period	Link
NC Budget & Tax Center	~$100M	2014 (5% rate)	Analysis
S304 comparison	~$82M	2026	S304 at 10% = $163M, so 5% ≈ $82M

PE vs External comparison

Source	Estimate	vs PE	Difference
PE (PolicyEngine)	-$83M	—	—
NC Budget & Tax Center (2014)	-$100M	+20%	Acceptable
S304 scaling (10% → 5%)	-$82M	-1%	Excellent

Verdict: PE estimate aligns exactly with expected 50% scaling from S304 (10% EITC).

Parameter changes

Parameter	Period	Value	Bill Reference
gov.contrib.states.nc.eitc.in_effect	2025-01-01 to 2027-12-31	true	G.S. 105-151.31
gov.contrib.states.nc.eitc.match	2025-01-01 to 2027-12-31	0.05 (5%)	G.S. 105-151.31

Key results

Metric	Value
Revenue impact	-$82,861,947
Poverty rate	26.67% → 26.61% (-0.23%)
Child poverty rate	22.56% → 22.44% (-0.53%)
Winners	12.5%
Losers	0.0%

Decile impact

Decile	Relative Change	Avg Benefit
1	+0.06%	$6
2	+0.13%	$33
3	+0.12%	$42
4	+0.10%	$47
5	+0.06%	$34
6	+0.03%	$23
7	+0.01%	$10
8	+0.00%	$3
9	+0.01%	$8
10	+0.00%	$2

District impacts

District	Avg Benefit	Winners	Losers	Poverty Change
NC-1	$24	14%	0%	-0.27%
NC-2	$18	12%	0%	-0.26%
NC-3	$25	13%	0%	-0.10%
NC-4	$22	11%	0%	0.00%
NC-5	$25	13%	0%	-0.31%
NC-6	$27	14%	0%	-0.72%
NC-7	$21	12%	0%	-0.46%
NC-8	$24	13%	0%	-0.47%
NC-9	$28	14%	0%	-0.64%
NC-10	$24	14%	0%	-0.29%
NC-11	$18	11%	0%	-0.66%
NC-12	$27	15%	0%	-0.06%
NC-13	$21	12%	0%	-0.09%
NC-14	$21	11%	0%	-0.03%

Reform parameters JSON

{
  "gov.contrib.states.nc.eitc.in_effect": {
    "2025-01-01.2027-12-31": true
  },
  "gov.contrib.states.nc.eitc.match": {
    "2025-01-01.2027-12-31": 0.05
  }
}

Versions

• PolicyEngine US: 1.591.1
• Dataset: policyengine-us-data 1.48.0
• Computed: 2026-03-20