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CBO January 2025 Updates #5539

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Feb 3, 2025
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CBO January 2025 Updates #5539

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32b4f7f
CBO jan 2025 updates
daphnehanse11 Jan 29, 2025
e5030d8
Put old sources back in
daphnehanse11 Jan 29, 2025
6ed4f90
updated cpi forecasts
daphnehanse11 Jan 30, 2025
6d8c2de
fixed tests
daphnehanse11 Jan 30, 2025
1452b01
test fix
daphnehanse11 Jan 30, 2025
087716c
ssi updates
daphnehanse11 Jan 30, 2025
52994ac
Update c_cpi_u.yaml
daphnehanse11 Jan 30, 2025
42a525b
Update c_cpi_u.yaml
daphnehanse11 Feb 3, 2025
5505e5c
Update cpi_u.yaml
daphnehanse11 Feb 3, 2025
4ea305a
Update changelog_entry.yaml
daphnehanse11 Feb 3, 2025
d9bc177
demographic updates
daphnehanse11 Feb 3, 2025
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4 changes: 4 additions & 0 deletions changelog_entry.yaml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
- bump: minor
changes:
added:
- January 2025 CBO economic and demographic outlooks.
278 changes: 146 additions & 132 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/cbo/income_by_source.yaml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -6,6 +6,10 @@ metadata:
# Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx
- title: Revenue Projections, by Category | Congressional Budget Office | January 2025
# Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx
adjusted_gross_income:
metadata:
label: Total AGI
Expand All @@ -19,172 +23,182 @@ adjusted_gross_income:
2019-01-01: 11_962_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 12_650_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 14_791_339_000_000
2022-01-01: 14_614_252_000_000
2023-01-01: 15_605_798_000_000
2024-01-01: 16_626_359_000_000
2025-01-01: 17_326_481_000_000
2026-01-01: 17_908_425_000_000
2027-01-01: 18_557_657_000_000
2028-01-01: 19_175_991_000_000
2029-01-01: 19_791_818_000_000
2030-01-01: 20_506_362_000_000
2031-01-01: 21_252_852_000_000
2032-01-01: 22_028_907_000_000
2033-01-01: 22_837_546_000_000
2034-01-01: 23_693_875_000_000
2022-01-01: 14_822_221_000_000
2023-01-01: 15_263_501_000_000
2024-01-01: 16_707_550_000_000
2025-01-01: 17_664_342_000_000
2026-01-01: 18_378_709_000_000
2027-01-01: 19_095_999_000_000
2028-01-01: 19_786_421_000_000
2029-01-01: 20_457_344_000_000
2030-01-01: 21_233_112_000_000
2031-01-01: 22_041_746_000_000
2032-01-01: 22_895_190_000_000
2033-01-01: 23_765_454_000_000
2034-01-01: 24_700_059_000_000
2035-01-01: 25_662_882_000_000
employment_income:
metadata:
label: Total employment income
values:
2019-01-01: 8_273_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 8_414_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 9_022_400_000_000
2022-01-01: 9_730_400_000_000
2023-01-01: 10_347_700_000_000
2024-01-01: 10_926_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 11_422_200_000_000
2026-01-01: 11_894_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 12_359_200_000_000
2028-01-01: 12_840_500_000_000
2029-01-01: 13_341_300_000_000
2030-01-01: 13_853_900_000_000
2031-01-01: 14_379_200_000_000
2032-01-01: 14_915_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 15_466_500_000_000
2034-01-01: 16_035_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 9_739_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 10_255_100_000_000
2024-01-01: 10_858_700_000_000
2025-01-01: 11_389_100_000_000
2026-01-01: 11_910_800_000_000
2027-01-01: 12_415_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 12_944_800_000_000
2029-01-01: 13_479_900_000_000
2030-01-01: 14_016_300_000_000
2031-01-01: 14_563_300_000_000
2032-01-01: 15_128_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 15_705_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 16_306_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 16_926_100_000_000
taxable_interest_and_ordinary_dividends: # excludes qualified_dividend_income
2019-01-01: 237_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 241_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 194_600_000_000
2022-01-01: 216_400_000_000
2023-01-01: 237_400_000_000
2024-01-01: 279_100_000_000
2025-01-01: 323_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 346_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 356_400_000_000
2028-01-01: 372_800_000_000
2029-01-01: 389_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 397_800_000_000
2031-01-01: 408_100_000_000
2032-01-01: 421_100_000_000
2033-01-01: 430_900_000_000
2034-01-01: 442_300_000_000
2022-01-01: 232_700_000_000
2023-01-01: 287_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 311_200_000_000
2025-01-01: 336_800_000_000
2026-01-01: 349_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 367_700_000_000
2028-01-01: 396_700_000_000
2029-01-01: 424_500_000_000
2030-01-01: 436_900_000_000
2031-01-01: 448_700_000_000
2032-01-01: 462_900_000_000
2033-01-01: 472_900_000_000
2034-01-01: 484_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 494_900_000_000
qualified_dividend_income:
2019-01-01: 248_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 246_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 295_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 314_300_000_000
2023-01-01: 320_500_000_000
2024-01-01: 334_800_000_000
2025-01-01: 351_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 364_800_000_000
2027-01-01: 375_400_000_000
2028-01-01: 387_200_000_000
2029-01-01: 402_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 428_100_000_000
2031-01-01: 453_900_000_000
2032-01-01: 479_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 503_400_000_000
2034-01-01: 527_200_000_000
2022-01-01: 313_200_000_000
2023-01-01: 328_900_000_000
2024-01-01: 338_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 358_800_000_000
2026-01-01: 379_600_000_000
2027-01-01: 395_500_000_000
2028-01-01: 410_100_000_000
2029-01-01: 426_800_000_000
2030-01-01: 454_900_000_000
2031-01-01: 482_900_000_000
2032-01-01: 510_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 536_400_000_000
2034-01-01: 562_000_000_000
2035-01-01: 586_900_000_000
net_capital_gain:
2019-01-01: 884_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 1_152_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 2_107_100_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_287_200_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_398_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_472_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_430_400_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_377_600_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_364_900_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_376_600_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_406_400_000_000
2030-01-01: 1_448_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 1_495_500_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_548_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_605_300_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_665_000_000_000
self_employment_income:
2022-01-01: 1_286_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 949_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_373_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_451_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_411_300_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_373_900_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_375_500_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_402_400_000_000
2030-01-01: 1_442_300_000_000
2031-01-01: 1_490_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_543_800_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_601_200_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_661_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 1_724_600_000_000
self_employment_income: #Net business income
2019-01-01: 1_103_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 1_170_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 1_472_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_557_500_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_611_900_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_737_500_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_827_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_883_100_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_936_500_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_956_700_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_989_600_000_000
2030-01-01: 2_033_100_000_000
2031-01-01: 2_083_800_000_000
2032-01-01: 2_136_400_000_000
2033-01-01: 2_189_100_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_269_500_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_557_200_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_659_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_782_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_867_800_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_929_300_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_983_200_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_994_800_000_000
2029-01-01: 2_021_800_000_000
2030-01-01: 2_061_800_000_000
2031-01-01: 2_112_900_000_000
2032-01-01: 2_171_200_000_000
2033-01-01: 2_232_100_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_320_300_000_000
2035-01-01: 2_412_400_000_000
taxable_pension_income:
2019-01-01: 1_125_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 1_127_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 1_267_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_248_700_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_380_300_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_514_400_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_574_300_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_620_700_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_668_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_713_700_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_758_700_000_000
2030-01-01: 1_805_300_000_000
2031-01-01: 1_857_400_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_915_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_985_900_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_056_800_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_350_100_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_389_500_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_581_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_746_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_843_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_914_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_975_600_000_000
2029-01-01: 2_043_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 2_116_700_000_000
2031-01-01: 2_198_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 2_286_300_000_000
2033-01-01: 2_373_800_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_467_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 2_571_400_000_000
taxable_social_security:
2019-01-01: 361_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 376_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 413_700_000_000
2022-01-01: 441_100_000_000
2023-01-01: 509_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 570_700_000_000
2025-01-01: 618_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 656_900_000_000
2027-01-01: 693_900_000_000
2028-01-01: 735_500_000_000
2029-01-01: 782_300_000_000
2030-01-01: 831_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 876_800_000_000
2032-01-01: 927_900_000_000
2033-01-01: 985_100_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_040_700_000_000
2022-01-01: 459_700_000_000
2023-01-01: 517_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 592_400_000_000
2025-01-01: 651_900_000_000
2026-01-01: 699_600_000_000
2027-01-01: 743_600_000_000
2028-01-01: 791_200_000_000
2029-01-01: 845_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 899_800_000_000
2031-01-01: 950_700_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_007_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_068_600_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_132_100_000_000
2035-01-01: 1_194_900_000_000
irs_other_income:
2019-01-01: -125_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 62_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 155_900_000_000
2022-01-01: -34_500_000_000
2023-01-01: -43_700_000_000
2024-01-01: -42_000_000_000
2025-01-01: -46_100_000_000
2026-01-01: -50_300_000_000
2027-01-01: -6_100_000_000
2028-01-01: -9_700_000_000
2029-01-01: -72_800_000_000
2030-01-01: -76_200_000_000
2031-01-01: -80_000_000_000
2032-01-01: -83_700_000_000
2033-01-01: -88_500_000_000
2034-01-01: -94_200_000_000
above_the_line_deductions:
2022-01-01: 24_900_000_000
2023-01-01: 27_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 28_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 30_200_000_000
2026-01-01: 32_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 87_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 88_600_000_000
2029-01-01: 12_700_000_000
2030-01-01: 11_500_000_000
2031-01-01: 10_400_000_000
2032-01-01: 9_300_000_000
2033-01-01: 8_600_000_000
2034-01-01: 7_300_000_000
2035-01-01: 4_400_000_000
above_the_line_deductions: #subtract statutory adjustmenets
2019-01-01: 145_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 139_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 139_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 147_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 156_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 167_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 176_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 185_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 192_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 198_000_000_000
2029-01-01: 206_000_000_000
2030-01-01: 214_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 223_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 232_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 241_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 250_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 141_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 150_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 159_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 168_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 177_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 184_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 191_000_000_000
2029-01-01: 199_000_000_000
2030-01-01: 207_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 215_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 225_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 233_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 243_000_000_000
2035-01-01: 253_000_000_000
32 changes: 19 additions & 13 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/cbo/income_tax.yaml
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,19 +1,20 @@
description: Individual income tax revenue projections (excludes the Premium Tax Credit).
values:
2021-01-01: 2_044_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 2_632_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 2_176_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 2_447_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 2_550_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 2_841_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 3_122_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 3_224_000_000_000
2029-01-01: 3_327_000_000_000
2030-01-01: 3_455_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 3_583_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 3_710_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 3_859_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 4_021_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 2_632_146_000_000
2023-01-01: 2_176_481_000_000
2024-01-01: 2_426_067_000_000
2025-01-01: 2_621_342_000_000
2026-01-01: 2_968_420_000_000
2027-01-01: 3_252_893_000_000
2028-01-01: 3_355_389_000_000
2029-01-01: 3_454_996_000_000
2030-01-01: 3_583_738_000_000
2031-01-01: 3_720_614_000_000
2032-01-01: 3_869_849_000_000
2033-01-01: 4_036_699_000_000
2034-01-01: 4_220_347_000_000
2035-01-01: 4_412_832_000_000
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
label: Income tax revenue
Expand All @@ -23,3 +24,8 @@ metadata:
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
# Row 73: Individual income yax receipts ($B, FY)m
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx
- title: Revenue Projections, by Category | Congressional Budget Office | January 2025
# Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
# Row 72: Individual income yax receipts ($B, FY)m
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx
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