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CBO January 2025 Updates (#5539)
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* CBO jan 2025 updates

* Put old sources back in

* updated cpi forecasts

* fixed tests

* test fix

* ssi updates

* Update c_cpi_u.yaml

* Update c_cpi_u.yaml

* Update cpi_u.yaml

* Update changelog_entry.yaml

Co-authored-by: Max Ghenis <[email protected]>

* demographic updates

---------

Co-authored-by: Max Ghenis <[email protected]>
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@daphnehanse11 @MaxGhenis
daphnehanse11 and MaxGhenis authored Feb 3, 2025
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4 changes: 4 additions & 0 deletions changelog_entry.yaml
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- bump: minor
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added:
- January 2025 CBO economic and demographic outlooks.
278 changes: 146 additions & 132 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/cbo/income_by_source.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -6,6 +6,10 @@ metadata:
# Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx
- title: Revenue Projections, by Category | Congressional Budget Office | January 2025
# Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx
adjusted_gross_income:
metadata:
label: Total AGI
Expand All @@ -19,172 +23,182 @@ adjusted_gross_income:
2019-01-01: 11_962_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 12_650_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 14_791_339_000_000
2022-01-01: 14_614_252_000_000
2023-01-01: 15_605_798_000_000
2024-01-01: 16_626_359_000_000
2025-01-01: 17_326_481_000_000
2026-01-01: 17_908_425_000_000
2027-01-01: 18_557_657_000_000
2028-01-01: 19_175_991_000_000
2029-01-01: 19_791_818_000_000
2030-01-01: 20_506_362_000_000
2031-01-01: 21_252_852_000_000
2032-01-01: 22_028_907_000_000
2033-01-01: 22_837_546_000_000
2034-01-01: 23_693_875_000_000
2022-01-01: 14_822_221_000_000
2023-01-01: 15_263_501_000_000
2024-01-01: 16_707_550_000_000
2025-01-01: 17_664_342_000_000
2026-01-01: 18_378_709_000_000
2027-01-01: 19_095_999_000_000
2028-01-01: 19_786_421_000_000
2029-01-01: 20_457_344_000_000
2030-01-01: 21_233_112_000_000
2031-01-01: 22_041_746_000_000
2032-01-01: 22_895_190_000_000
2033-01-01: 23_765_454_000_000
2034-01-01: 24_700_059_000_000
2035-01-01: 25_662_882_000_000
employment_income:
metadata:
label: Total employment income
values:
2019-01-01: 8_273_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 8_414_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 9_022_400_000_000
2022-01-01: 9_730_400_000_000
2023-01-01: 10_347_700_000_000
2024-01-01: 10_926_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 11_422_200_000_000
2026-01-01: 11_894_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 12_359_200_000_000
2028-01-01: 12_840_500_000_000
2029-01-01: 13_341_300_000_000
2030-01-01: 13_853_900_000_000
2031-01-01: 14_379_200_000_000
2032-01-01: 14_915_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 15_466_500_000_000
2034-01-01: 16_035_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 9_739_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 10_255_100_000_000
2024-01-01: 10_858_700_000_000
2025-01-01: 11_389_100_000_000
2026-01-01: 11_910_800_000_000
2027-01-01: 12_415_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 12_944_800_000_000
2029-01-01: 13_479_900_000_000
2030-01-01: 14_016_300_000_000
2031-01-01: 14_563_300_000_000
2032-01-01: 15_128_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 15_705_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 16_306_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 16_926_100_000_000
taxable_interest_and_ordinary_dividends: # excludes qualified_dividend_income
2019-01-01: 237_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 241_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 194_600_000_000
2022-01-01: 216_400_000_000
2023-01-01: 237_400_000_000
2024-01-01: 279_100_000_000
2025-01-01: 323_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 346_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 356_400_000_000
2028-01-01: 372_800_000_000
2029-01-01: 389_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 397_800_000_000
2031-01-01: 408_100_000_000
2032-01-01: 421_100_000_000
2033-01-01: 430_900_000_000
2034-01-01: 442_300_000_000
2022-01-01: 232_700_000_000
2023-01-01: 287_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 311_200_000_000
2025-01-01: 336_800_000_000
2026-01-01: 349_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 367_700_000_000
2028-01-01: 396_700_000_000
2029-01-01: 424_500_000_000
2030-01-01: 436_900_000_000
2031-01-01: 448_700_000_000
2032-01-01: 462_900_000_000
2033-01-01: 472_900_000_000
2034-01-01: 484_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 494_900_000_000
qualified_dividend_income:
2019-01-01: 248_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 246_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 295_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 314_300_000_000
2023-01-01: 320_500_000_000
2024-01-01: 334_800_000_000
2025-01-01: 351_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 364_800_000_000
2027-01-01: 375_400_000_000
2028-01-01: 387_200_000_000
2029-01-01: 402_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 428_100_000_000
2031-01-01: 453_900_000_000
2032-01-01: 479_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 503_400_000_000
2034-01-01: 527_200_000_000
2022-01-01: 313_200_000_000
2023-01-01: 328_900_000_000
2024-01-01: 338_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 358_800_000_000
2026-01-01: 379_600_000_000
2027-01-01: 395_500_000_000
2028-01-01: 410_100_000_000
2029-01-01: 426_800_000_000
2030-01-01: 454_900_000_000
2031-01-01: 482_900_000_000
2032-01-01: 510_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 536_400_000_000
2034-01-01: 562_000_000_000
2035-01-01: 586_900_000_000
net_capital_gain:
2019-01-01: 884_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 1_152_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 2_107_100_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_287_200_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_398_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_472_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_430_400_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_377_600_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_364_900_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_376_600_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_406_400_000_000
2030-01-01: 1_448_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 1_495_500_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_548_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_605_300_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_665_000_000_000
self_employment_income:
2022-01-01: 1_286_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 949_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_373_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_451_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_411_300_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_373_900_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_375_500_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_402_400_000_000
2030-01-01: 1_442_300_000_000
2031-01-01: 1_490_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_543_800_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_601_200_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_661_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 1_724_600_000_000
self_employment_income: #Net business income
2019-01-01: 1_103_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 1_170_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 1_472_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_557_500_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_611_900_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_737_500_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_827_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_883_100_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_936_500_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_956_700_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_989_600_000_000
2030-01-01: 2_033_100_000_000
2031-01-01: 2_083_800_000_000
2032-01-01: 2_136_400_000_000
2033-01-01: 2_189_100_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_269_500_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_557_200_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_659_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_782_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_867_800_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_929_300_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_983_200_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_994_800_000_000
2029-01-01: 2_021_800_000_000
2030-01-01: 2_061_800_000_000
2031-01-01: 2_112_900_000_000
2032-01-01: 2_171_200_000_000
2033-01-01: 2_232_100_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_320_300_000_000
2035-01-01: 2_412_400_000_000
taxable_pension_income:
2019-01-01: 1_125_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 1_127_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 1_267_900_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_248_700_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_380_300_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_514_400_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_574_300_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_620_700_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_668_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_713_700_000_000
2029-01-01: 1_758_700_000_000
2030-01-01: 1_805_300_000_000
2031-01-01: 1_857_400_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_915_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_985_900_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_056_800_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_350_100_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_389_500_000_000
2024-01-01: 1_581_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_746_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 1_843_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 1_914_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 1_975_600_000_000
2029-01-01: 2_043_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 2_116_700_000_000
2031-01-01: 2_198_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 2_286_300_000_000
2033-01-01: 2_373_800_000_000
2034-01-01: 2_467_700_000_000
2035-01-01: 2_571_400_000_000
taxable_social_security:
2019-01-01: 361_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 376_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 413_700_000_000
2022-01-01: 441_100_000_000
2023-01-01: 509_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 570_700_000_000
2025-01-01: 618_600_000_000
2026-01-01: 656_900_000_000
2027-01-01: 693_900_000_000
2028-01-01: 735_500_000_000
2029-01-01: 782_300_000_000
2030-01-01: 831_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 876_800_000_000
2032-01-01: 927_900_000_000
2033-01-01: 985_100_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_040_700_000_000
2022-01-01: 459_700_000_000
2023-01-01: 517_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 592_400_000_000
2025-01-01: 651_900_000_000
2026-01-01: 699_600_000_000
2027-01-01: 743_600_000_000
2028-01-01: 791_200_000_000
2029-01-01: 845_200_000_000
2030-01-01: 899_800_000_000
2031-01-01: 950_700_000_000
2032-01-01: 1_007_600_000_000
2033-01-01: 1_068_600_000_000
2034-01-01: 1_132_100_000_000
2035-01-01: 1_194_900_000_000
irs_other_income:
2019-01-01: -125_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 62_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 155_900_000_000
2022-01-01: -34_500_000_000
2023-01-01: -43_700_000_000
2024-01-01: -42_000_000_000
2025-01-01: -46_100_000_000
2026-01-01: -50_300_000_000
2027-01-01: -6_100_000_000
2028-01-01: -9_700_000_000
2029-01-01: -72_800_000_000
2030-01-01: -76_200_000_000
2031-01-01: -80_000_000_000
2032-01-01: -83_700_000_000
2033-01-01: -88_500_000_000
2034-01-01: -94_200_000_000
above_the_line_deductions:
2022-01-01: 24_900_000_000
2023-01-01: 27_200_000_000
2024-01-01: 28_900_000_000
2025-01-01: 30_200_000_000
2026-01-01: 32_400_000_000
2027-01-01: 87_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 88_600_000_000
2029-01-01: 12_700_000_000
2030-01-01: 11_500_000_000
2031-01-01: 10_400_000_000
2032-01-01: 9_300_000_000
2033-01-01: 8_600_000_000
2034-01-01: 7_300_000_000
2035-01-01: 4_400_000_000
above_the_line_deductions: #subtract statutory adjustmenets
2019-01-01: 145_000_000_000
2020-01-01: 139_000_000_000
2021-01-01: 139_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 147_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 156_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 167_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 176_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 185_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 192_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 198_000_000_000
2029-01-01: 206_000_000_000
2030-01-01: 214_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 223_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 232_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 241_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 250_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 141_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 150_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 159_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 168_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 177_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 184_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 191_000_000_000
2029-01-01: 199_000_000_000
2030-01-01: 207_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 215_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 225_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 233_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 243_000_000_000
2035-01-01: 253_000_000_000
32 changes: 19 additions & 13 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/cbo/income_tax.yaml
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@@ -1,19 +1,20 @@
description: Individual income tax revenue projections (excludes the Premium Tax Credit).
values:
2021-01-01: 2_044_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 2_632_000_000_000
2023-01-01: 2_176_000_000_000
2024-01-01: 2_447_000_000_000
2025-01-01: 2_550_000_000_000
2026-01-01: 2_841_000_000_000
2027-01-01: 3_122_000_000_000
2028-01-01: 3_224_000_000_000
2029-01-01: 3_327_000_000_000
2030-01-01: 3_455_000_000_000
2031-01-01: 3_583_000_000_000
2032-01-01: 3_710_000_000_000
2033-01-01: 3_859_000_000_000
2034-01-01: 4_021_000_000_000
2022-01-01: 2_632_146_000_000
2023-01-01: 2_176_481_000_000
2024-01-01: 2_426_067_000_000
2025-01-01: 2_621_342_000_000
2026-01-01: 2_968_420_000_000
2027-01-01: 3_252_893_000_000
2028-01-01: 3_355_389_000_000
2029-01-01: 3_454_996_000_000
2030-01-01: 3_583_738_000_000
2031-01-01: 3_720_614_000_000
2032-01-01: 3_869_849_000_000
2033-01-01: 4_036_699_000_000
2034-01-01: 4_220_347_000_000
2035-01-01: 4_412_832_000_000
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
label: Income tax revenue
Expand All @@ -23,3 +24,8 @@ metadata:
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
# Row 73: Individual income yax receipts ($B, FY)m
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51138-2024-06-Revenue.xlsx
- title: Revenue Projections, by Category | Congressional Budget Office | January 2025
# Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
# Sheet 3.Individual Income Tax Details
# Row 72: Individual income yax receipts ($B, FY)m
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx
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