v1.2.0

What's Changed

• Updated to include newly updated NCHS provisional 2020-2021 county-quarter mortality data: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Quarter-an/dnhi-s2bf

• Output now includes estimated deaths for every county-quarter of data, 2015-2021 Q2

Full Changelog: v1.1.2...v1.2.0

Model equation

Minor update: included equation for model using updated {equatiomatic}

Minor model improvements

Minor updates to model and output:

• Evaluated several additional models of expected deaths that included state as a random grouping factor

• Selected a new, slightly-improved model (counties nested in county sets nested in states)

• New output using this new model

Refine excess deaths model

Major changes:

• Updated /results/ with estimates from new model.

• Selected a new model for estimating excess deaths. Now counties are nested in county sets are nested in census regions.

• Updated population estimates with vintage 2020 US Census estimates through 2020.

• Rather than treat suppressed values in source datasets as 0, treat them as NA (missing).

• Added details of model comparison to docs/modeling_and_model_selection.md.

Minor changes:

• Output estimated expected deaths for all years back to 2015, not just 2020.

• Updated README to reflect changes to model.

• Updated estimate_excess_deaths function in code/estimate_excess_deaths.R to include an argument for expected_deaths_model, removing the hard-coded model from the function itself.

• Added output: fitted values, residuals, and other observation-level model information to results/united_states_county_quarterly_fitted_deaths_per_day_estimates.csv.

• Increased file size allowed by check-added-large-files precommit hook.

v1.0.0

Initial public release of 2020 United States county-quarterly excess deaths (or mortality)