merge roster

nicidob · nicidob · commit a7c6c774189a · 2020-02-28T03:13:58.000Z
diff --git a/best_roster.ipynb b/best_roster.ipynb
@@ -406,11 +406,11 @@
    "source": [
     "plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight')\n",
     "plt.style.use('seaborn-white')\n",
-    "plt.scatter(dt['ovr'],dt['pts'],s=3,alpha=0.8)\n",
+    "plt.scatter(dt['ovr'],dt['pts']/50,s=1,alpha=0.4)\n",
     "plt.xlabel('overall (min weighted)')\n",
     "plt.ylabel('point margin')\n",
     "plt.title('r squared: {:.3f}'.format(scipy.stats.pearsonr(dt['ovr']/50,dt['pts'])[0]**2))\n",
-    "plt.grid(True)"
+    "plt.grid(True)\n"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -421,11 +421,13 @@
    "source": [
     "plt.style.use('fivethirtyeight')\n",
     "plt.style.use('seaborn-white')\n",
-    "plt.scatter(dt['pts']/50,clf_res.predict(),s=3,alpha=0.8)\n",
+    "plt.scatter(dt['pts']/50,clf_res.predict(),s=1,alpha=0.4)\n",
     "plt.xlabel('actual margin')\n",
     "plt.ylabel('predicted margin')\n",
     "plt.title('r squared: {:.3f}'.format(scipy.stats.pearsonr(dt['pts']/50,clf_res.predict())[0]**2))\n",
-    "plt.grid(True)"
+    "plt.grid(True)\n",
+    "plt.xlim(-40,40)\n",
+    "plt.ylim(-40,40)"
    ]
   },
   {
diff --git a/fetch_cbb.ipynb b/fetch_cbb.ipynb
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "from bs4 import BeautifulSoup\n",
     "import re\n",
     "import subprocess\n",
-    "import pandas as pd\n",
+    "import pandas as pdz\n",
     "schools = ['youngstown-state','yale','xavier','wyoming','wright-state','wofford','wisconsin','winthrop','william-mary','wichita-state','western-michigan','western-kentucky','western-illinois','western-carolina','west-virginia','weber-state','washington-state','washington','wake-forest','wagner','virginia-tech','virginia-military-institute','virginia-commonwealth','virginia','villanova','vermont','vanderbilt','valparaiso','utah-valley','utah','utah-state','california','ucla','california-santa-barbara','california-riverside','california-irvine','california-davis','tulsa','tulane','troy','towson','toledo','texas-san-antonio','texas-pan-american','texas-el-paso','texas-arlington','texas-tech','texas-state','texas-southern','texas','texas-christian','texas-am-corpus-christi','texas-am','tennessee-martin','tennessee','tennessee-tech','tennessee-state','temple','syracuse','stony-brook','stetson','stephen-f-austin','stanford','st-johns-ny','st-francis-ny','st-bonaventure','southern-utah','southern-mississippi','southern-methodist','southern','southern-illinois-edwardsville','southern-illinois','southern-california','southeastern-louisiana','southeast-missouri-state','south-florida','south-dakota-state','south-dakota','south-carolina-upstate','south-carolina-state','south-carolina','south-alabama','siena','seton-hall','seattle','savannah-state','santa-clara','san-jose-state','san-francisco','san-diego','san-diego-state','samford','sam-houston-state','saint-peters','saint-marys-ca','saint-louis','saint-josephs','saint-francis-pa','sacred-heart','sacramento-state','rutgers','robert-morris','rider','richmond','rice','rhode-island','radford','quinnipiac','ipfw','purdue','providence','princeton','presbyterian','prairie-view','portland-state','portland','pittsburgh','pepperdine','pennsylvania','penn-state','pacific','oregon-state','oregon','oral-roberts','nebraska-omaha','old-dominion','oklahoma-state','oklahoma','ohio-state','ohio','oakland','notre-dame','northwestern','northwestern-state','northern-kentucky','northern-iowa','northern-illinois','northern-colorado','northern-arizona','northeastern','north-texas','north-florida','north-dakota-state','north-dakota','north-carolina-wilmington','north-carolina-greensboro','north-carolina-asheville','north-carolina','north-carolina-state','north-carolina-central','north-carolina-at','north-alabama','norfolk-state','njit','nicholls-state','niagara','new-orleans','new-mexico-state','new-mexico','new-hampshire','nevada-las-vegas','nevada','nebraska','navy','murray-state','mount-st-marys','morgan-state','morehead-state','montana-state','montana','monmouth','missouri-kansas-city','missouri','missouri-state','mississippi-valley-state','mississippi-state','mississippi','minnesota','milwaukee','middle-tennessee','michigan','michigan-state','miami-oh','miami-fl','mercer','memphis','mcneese-state','massachusetts-lowell','massachusetts','maryland-eastern-shore','maryland-baltimore-county','maryland','marshall','marquette','marist','manhattan','maine','loyola-marymount','loyola-md','loyola-il','louisville','louisiana-monroe','louisiana-tech','louisiana-state','louisiana-lafayette','longwood','long-island-university','long-beach-state','arkansas-little-rock','lipscomb','liberty','lehigh','lamar','lafayette','la-salle','kentucky','kent-state','kennesaw-state','kansas-state','kansas','james-madison','jacksonville-state','jacksonville','jackson-state','iupui','iowa-state','iowa','iona','indiana-state','indiana','incarnate-word','illinois-chicago','illinois-state','illinois','idaho','idaho-state','howard','houston','houston-baptist','holy-cross','hofstra','high-point','hawaii','harvard','hartford','hampton','green-bay','grand-canyon','grambling','gonzaga','georgia-tech','georgia-state','georgia-southern','georgia','georgetown','george-washington','george-mason','gardner-webb','furman','fresno-state','fordham','florida-state','florida-international','florida-gulf-coast','florida','florida-atlantic','florida-am','fairleigh-dickinson','fairfield','evansville','elon','eastern-washington','eastern-michigan','eastern-kentucky','eastern-illinois','east-tennessee-state','east-carolina','duquesne','duke','drexel','drake','detroit-mercy','depaul','denver','delaware-state','delaware','dayton','davidson','dartmouth','creighton','cornell','coppin-state','connecticut','columbia','colorado-state','colorado','college-of-charleston','colgate','coastal-carolina','cleveland-state','clemson','citadel','cincinnati','chicago-state','chattanooga','charlotte','charleston-southern','central-michigan','central-florida','central-connecticut-state','central-arkansas','canisius','campbell','california-baptist','cal-state-northridge','cal-state-fullerton','cal-state-bakersfield','cal-poly','butler','buffalo','bucknell','bryant','brown','brigham-young','bradley','bowling-green-state','boston-university','boston-college','boise-state','binghamton','bethune-cookman','belmont','baylor','ball-state','austin-peay','auburn','army','arkansas-pine-bluff','arkansas-state','arkansas','arizona','arizona-state','appalachian-state','american','alcorn-state','albany-ny','alabama-birmingham','alabama-state','alabama','alabama-am','akron','air-force','abilene-christian']"
    ]
   },
diff --git a/merge_roster.ipynb b/merge_roster.ipynb
@@ -17,7 +17,8 @@
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
     "base_roster = 'normed_new.json'\n",
-    "settings_roster = 'auto_roster_2020.json'\n"
+    "settings_roster = 'auto_roster_2020.json'\n",
+    "settings_roster_old = 'auto_roster_2019.json'\n"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -30,9 +31,20 @@
     "    base = json.load(fp)\n",
     "with open(settings_roster) as fp:\n",
     "    settings = json.load(fp)\n",
+    "with open(settings_roster_old) as fp:\n",
+    "    settings_old = json.load(fp)\n",
     "base['version']  = 36\n"
    ]
   },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "born_new = {}"
+   ]
+  },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
@@ -46,13 +58,34 @@
     "    if nsplit[-1] in ['Jr','Sr','III','II','Jr.','Sr.']:\n",
     "        name = ' '.join(nsplit[:-1])\n",
     "    p['name'] = unidecode(name).replace('.','')\n",
+    "    born_new[p['name'].lower()] = p['born']['year']\n",
     "    if p['name'] in new_settings:\n",
     "        print(new_settings[p['name']])\n",
     "        print(p)\n",
     "        print()\n",
     "    new_settings[p['name'].lower()] = p"
    ]
   },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "new_settings['stephen curry']\n",
+    "for p in settings_old['players']:\n",
+    "    name = p['firstName'] + ' ' + p['lastName']\n",
+    "    nsplit = unidecode(name).split(' ')\n",
+    "    if nsplit[-1] in ['Jr','Sr','III','II','Jr.','Sr.']:\n",
+    "        name = ' '.join(nsplit[:-1])\n",
+    "    p['name'] = unidecode(name).replace('.','')\n",
+    "    #print(name)\n",
+    "    if p['name'].lower() == 'stephen curry':\n",
+    "        new_settings[p['name'].lower()]['ratings'] = p['ratings']\n",
+    "        print(p['ratings'])\n",
+    "new_settings['stephen curry']\n"
+   ]
+  },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
    "execution_count": null,
@@ -68,14 +101,14 @@
     "    nsplit = name.split(' ')\n",
     "    if nsplit[-1] in ['Jr','Sr','III','II','Jr.','Sr.']:\n",
     "        name = ' '.join(nsplit[:-1])\n",
-    "    if name.lower() in new_settings :\n",
+    "    if name.lower() in new_settings and abs(born_new.get(name.lower(),0)-p['born']['year']) < 3:\n",
     "        if  new_settings[name.lower()]['tid'] < -1:\n",
     "            #print('skipped',name)\n",
-    "            print(p['ratings'])\n",
+    "            #print(p['ratings'])\n",
     "            continue\n",
     "        p['ratings'] = new_settings[name.lower()]['ratings']\n",
     "    else:\n",
-    "        print(name)"
+    "        print(name,name.lower() in new_settings,p['name'])"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -84,7 +117,7 @@
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "with open('updated_roster20.json','wt') as fp:\n",
+    "with open('updated_roster.json','wt') as fp:\n",
     "    json.dump(base,fp)"
    ]
   },
@@ -156,7 +189,7 @@
    "name": "python",
    "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
    "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
-   "version": "3.6.8"
+   "version": "3.6.9"
   }
  },
  "nbformat": 4,
diff --git a/team_win_testing.ipynb b/team_win_testing.ipynb
@@ -265,7 +265,7 @@
    "source": [
     "diff_m = sm.OLS(diff_df['MOV'],sm.add_constant(diff_df.drop('MOV',axis=1))).fit()\n",
     "diff_m = sm.OLS(diff_df['MOV'],sm.add_constant(diff_df['Ovr'])).fit()\n",
-    "#diff_m = sm.OLS(diff_df['MOV'],sm.add_constant(diff_df.drop(['MOV','Ovr','Pot'],axis=1))).fit()\n"
+    "diff_m = sm.OLS(diff_df['MOV'],sm.add_constant(diff_df.drop(['MOV','Ovr','Pot'],axis=1))).fit()\n"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -283,9 +283,100 @@
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "plt.scatter(diff_m.predict(),diff_df['MOV'],s=8,alpha=0.1)\n",
-    "plt.xlabel('Predicted MOV (min-weighted OVR + HFA)')\n",
-    "plt.ylabel('MOV')"
+    "import pickle\n",
+    "res = pickle.load(open('ats_res.pkl','rb'))"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "plt.scatter(diff_m.predict(),diff_df['MOV'],s=2,alpha=0.2,label='bbgm')\n",
+    "plt.scatter(res[:,0],res[:,1],s=10,alpha=0.6,label='19/20 NBA')\n",
+    "\n",
+    "plt.xlabel('Predicted MOV')\n",
+    "plt.ylabel('MOV')\n",
+    "plt.legend(markerscale=5)\n",
+    "plt.tight_layout()\n",
+    "plt.xlim(-20,20)\n",
+    "plt.ylim(-50,50)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "res2 = np.stack([diff_m.predict(),diff_df['MOV']]).T"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "covar_nba = res @ res.T"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "from sklearn.decomposition import PCA"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "c1 = PCA()\n",
+    "c1.fit(res)\n",
+    "c1.mean_,np.sqrt(c1.singular_values_)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "c2 = PCA()\n",
+    "c2.fit(res2)\n",
+    "c2.mean_,np.sqrt(c2.singular_values_)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "d1 = res[np.where((res[:,0] <55.1) & (res[:,0] > 9.9))][:,1]\n",
+    "d2 = res2[np.where((res2[:,0] <55.1) & (res2[:,0] > 9.9))][:,1]\n",
+    "plt.hist(d1,20,alpha=0.5,label='NBA 19/20',density=True)\n",
+    "plt.hist(d2,20,alpha=0.5,label='BBGM',density=True)\n",
+    "plt.grid('True')\n",
+    "plt.title('Games with Spread 10 or more')\n",
+    "plt.xlabel('MOV')\n",
+    "plt.legend()\n",
+    "plt.tight_layout()"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "(d1 > 0).sum()/d1.shape[0],(d2 > 0).sum()/d2.shape[0]"
    ]
   },
   {
diff --git a/testlol.csv b/testlol.csv
diff --git a/updated_roster.json b/updated_roster.json

Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
`@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@`
`10`	`10`	`"from bs4 import BeautifulSoup\n",`
`11`	`11`	`"import re\n",`
`12`	`12`	`"import subprocess\n",`
`13`		`- "import pandas as pd\n",`
	`13`	`+ "import pandas as pdz\n",`
`14`	`14`	"schools = ['youngstown-state','yale','xavier','wyoming','wright-state','wofford','wisconsin','winthrop','william-mary','wichita-state','western-michigan','western-kentucky','western-illinois','western-carolina','west-virginia','weber-state','washington-state','washington','wake-forest','wagner','virginia-tech','virginia-military-institute','virginia-commonwealth','virginia','villanova','vermont','vanderbilt','valparaiso','utah-valley','utah','utah-state','california','ucla','california-santa-barbara','california-riverside','california-irvine','california-davis','tulsa','tulane','troy','towson','toledo','texas-san-antonio','texas-pan-american','texas-el-paso','texas-arlington','texas-tech','texas-state','texas-southern','texas','texas-christian','texas-am-corpus-christi','texas-am','tennessee-martin','tennessee','tennessee-tech','tennessee-state','temple','syracuse','stony-brook','stetson','stephen-f-austin','stanford','st-johns-ny','st-francis-ny','st-bonaventure','southern-utah','southern-mississippi','southern-methodist','southern','southern-illinois-edwardsville','southern-illinois','southern-california','southeastern-louisiana','southeast-missouri-state','south-florida','south-dakota-state','south-dakota','south-carolina-upstate','south-carolina-state','south-carolina','south-alabama','siena','seton-hall','seattle','savannah-state','santa-clara','san-jose-state','san-francisco','san-diego','san-diego-state','samford','sam-houston-state','saint-peters','saint-marys-ca','saint-louis','saint-josephs','saint-francis-pa','sacred-heart','sacramento-state','rutgers','robert-morris','rider','richmond','rice','rhode-island','radford','quinnipiac','ipfw','purdue','providence','princeton','presbyterian','prairie-view','portland-state','portland','pittsburgh','pepperdine','pennsylvania','penn-state','pacific','oregon-state','oregon','oral-roberts','nebraska-omaha','old-dominion','oklahoma-state','oklahoma','ohio-state','ohio','oakland','notre-dame','northwestern','northwestern-state','northern-kentucky','northern-iowa','northern-illinois','northern-colorado','northern-arizona','northeastern','north-texas','north-florida','north-dakota-state','north-dakota','north-carolina-wilmington','north-carolina-greensboro','north-carolina-asheville','north-carolina','north-carolina-state','north-carolina-central','north-carolina-at','north-alabama','norfolk-state','njit','nicholls-state','niagara','new-orleans','new-mexico-state','new-mexico','new-hampshire','nevada-las-vegas','nevada','nebraska','navy','murray-state','mount-st-marys','morgan-state','morehead-state','montana-state','montana','monmouth','missouri-kansas-city','missouri','missouri-state','mississippi-valley-state','mississippi-state','mississippi','minnesota','milwaukee','middle-tennessee','michigan','michigan-state','miami-oh','miami-fl','mercer','memphis','mcneese-state','massachusetts-lowell','massachusetts','maryland-eastern-shore','maryland-baltimore-county','maryland','marshall','marquette','marist','manhattan','maine','loyola-marymount','loyola-md','loyola-il','louisville','louisiana-monroe','louisiana-tech','louisiana-state','louisiana-lafayette','longwood','long-island-university','long-beach-state','arkansas-little-rock','lipscomb','liberty','lehigh','lamar','lafayette','la-salle','kentucky','kent-state','kennesaw-state','kansas-state','kansas','james-madison','jacksonville-state','jacksonville','jackson-state','iupui','iowa-state','iowa','iona','indiana-state','indiana','incarnate-word','illinois-chicago','illinois-state','illinois','idaho','idaho-state','howard','houston','houston-baptist','holy-cross','hofstra','high-point','hawaii','harvard','hartford','hampton','green-bay','grand-canyon','grambling','gonzaga','georgia-tech','georgia-state','georgia-southern','georgia','georgetown','george-washington','george-mason','gardner-webb','furman','fresno-state','fordham','florida-state','florida-international','florida-gulf-coast','florida','florida-atlantic','florida-am','fairleigh-dickinson','fairfield','evansville','elon','eastern-washington','eastern-michigan','eastern-kentucky','eastern-illinois','east-tennessee-state','east-carolina','duquesne','duke','drexel','drake','detroit-mercy','depaul','denver','delaware-state','delaware','dayton','davidson','dartmouth','creighton','cornell','coppin-state','connecticut','columbia','colorado-state','colorado','college-of-charleston','colgate','coastal-carolina','cleveland-state','clemson','citadel','cincinnati','chicago-state','chattanooga','charlotte','charleston-southern','central-michigan','central-florida','central-connecticut-state','central-arkansas','canisius','campbell','california-baptist','cal-state-northridge','cal-state-fullerton','cal-state-bakersfield','cal-poly','butler','buffalo','bucknell','bryant','brown','brigham-young','bradley','bowling-green-state','boston-university','boston-college','boise-state','binghamton','bethune-cookman','belmont','baylor','ball-state','austin-peay','auburn','army','arkansas-pine-bluff','arkansas-state','arkansas','arizona','arizona-state','appalachian-state','american','alcorn-state','albany-ny','alabama-birmingham','alabama-state','alabama','alabama-am','akron','air-force','abilene-christian']"
`15`	`15`	`]`
`16`	`16`	`},`