index.njk

---
title: Home
layout: default
---

<div class="container">
  <div class="card-deck">
    {% for position in currentPositions %}
      <div class="card fund-card">
        <h2 class="card-header"><b>{{ position.fund }}</b> Fund</h3>
        <div class="card-body">
          <p class="card-text">{{ position.description }}</p>
          {% if position.invested %}
            <img class="fund-status-icon" src="{{ '/assets/images/in.svg' | url }}" alt="Green check mark">
            <p class="card-text"><strong>Invested</strong> as of {{ position.date | formatDate("MMM D, YYYY") }}</p>
          {% else %}
            <img class="fund-status-icon" src="{{ '/assets/images/out.svg' | url }}" alt="Red X mark">
            <p class="card-text"><strong>Moved to G Fund</strong> as of {{ position.date | formatDate("MMM D, YYYY") }}</p>
          {% endif %}
          <hr>
          <div class="row details">
            <div class="col-lg-6">
              <div class="details-price">
                <div>Price</div>
                <div class="details-price-amount">{{ position.tenthMonthPrice | formatCurrency }}</div>
                <div><small class="text-muted">({{ position.tenthMonthPriceDate | formatDate("MMM D, YYYY") }})</small></div>
              </div>
            </div>
            <div class="col-lg-6">
              <div class="details-sma">
                <div>10-month SMA</div>
                <div class="details-sma-amount">{{ position.tenMonthAverage | formatCurrency }}</div>
                <div><small class="text-muted">({{ position.firstMonthPriceDate | formatDate("MMM D, YYYY") }} - {{ position.tenthMonthPriceDate | formatDate("MMM D, YYYY") }})</small></div>
              </div>
            </div>
          </div>
        </div>
      </div>
    {% endfor %}
  </div>
</div>

<div class="container">
  <section id="about">
    <h2>How it works</h2>
    <p>This is a TSP investment model based on Mebane Faber's paper, <i><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461">A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation</a></i>. Faber describes an investment system that is based on comparing the current price of a fund to the 10-month simple moving average (SMA) of that fund, and making a buy/sell decision based on that comparison.</p>
    <p>Applied to the TSP, this means we watch the C, S, and I funds. If the price of any of these funds drops below its 10-month SMA, we move money from that fund to the G fund. Conversely, if a fund's price rises above its 10-month SMA, we move money from the G fund to that stock fund. You decide how much of your investment you want to allocate to each fund. The F fund and the L funds are not a part of this model.</p>
    <p>Faber's model only looks at the prices once a month after the final trading day of the month. This is a perfect fit for the TSP since we are only allowed two trades per month plus one move to the G Fund per month.</p>
    <p>I originally learned of this model from a <a href="https://federalnewsradio.com/federal-report/2016/07/want-more-control-over-your-investments/">Federal News Radio article</a>, which describes in detail how Faber's model can be applied to the TSP.</p>
    <p>If you are considering following this model for your investments, there are a few things you should keep in mind:</p>
    <ul>
      <li>Everyone's investment needs are different. This model may or may not fit your needs.</li>
      <li>I am just a human pounding away at a keyboard. Humans make mistakes. You should verify the numbers for yourself rather than relying on my calculations.</li>
    </ul>
  </section>
</div>