CE 599-002: Data Science in Transportation
Spring 2018
Facilitated In-Class Discussions: April 17, 19 and 24
Papers Due: May 4, 2017, 5 pm in OHR 261
Connection to Student Outcomes
ABET has identified the following student outcomes for engineering programs. This assignment relates to outcomes g through j, shown below in italics.
(a) an ability to apply knowledge of mathematics, science, and engineering
(b) an ability to design and conduct experiments, as well as to analyze and interpret data
(c) an ability to design a system, component, or process to meet desired needs within realistic constraints such as economic, environmental, social, political, ethical, health and safety, manufacturability, and sustainability
(d) an ability to function on multidisciplinary teams
(e) an ability to identify, formulate, and solve engineering problems
(f) an understanding of professional and ethical responsibility
(g) an ability to communicate effectively*
(h) the broad education necessary to understand the impact of engineering solutions in a global, economic, environmental, and societal context*
(i) a recognition of the need for, and an ability to engage in life-long learning*
(j) a knowledge of contemporary issues*
(k) an ability to use the techniques, skills, and modern engineering tools necessary for engineering practice.
Broadly, it asks the students to consider our work as engineers and data scientists in relation to a broader societal context. The assignment is to consider one of three books or reports, and communicate, both in class and in writing how the literature relates to contemporary issues in transportation and data science.
The task is assigned in the hope that it provides a model by which students can continue to engage with the larger implications of their work, in their role as engineers and as citizens.
Deliverables
The deliverables for this assignment are:
- The student must coordinate with the other students assigned the same topic to facilitate a 20-30 minute in-class discussion. Students assigned other topics will not have read the material, so the discussion must start with a concise summary of the assigned book/report, and focus on key questions as it relates to contemporary issues.
- A 5,000 word essay addressing the topic at hand. The essay should be completed individually, and incorporate information from the source material, from the in-class discussion, and original ideas reflecting the student's own thinking.
Topics
There are three topics to choose from. Students should email the professor with their first, second and third choice, and the topics will be assigned such that there is an equal distribution of students to topics. Each is described below.
Topic 1: Forecasting like a fox
Read the following:
Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don’t. 1 edition. New York: Penguin Books, 2015 (paperback). ISBN: 978-0-14-312508-2
Wachs, Martin. “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy.” Business and Professional Ethics Journal 9, no. 1 & 2 (1990): 141–57.
Hartgen, David T. “Hubris or Humility? Accuracy Issues for the next 50 Years of Travel Demand Modeling.” Transportation 40, no. 6 (2013): 1133–57.
Broadly, the assignment is to consider the case of forecasting demand for transportation projects and recommend ways to improve the process. Proposed changes to specific algorithms or methods are not required--those are more relevant to CE 631 or its follow-on course--but students may choose to focus on broad technical strategies, data sources, institutional changes, or the like. Papers should consider the ways in which transportation forecasting is done relative to lessons from other fields.
The context of this assignment is David Hartgen's (2013) claim, "The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts." What he means by this is forecasts of traffic volumes on untolled highway facilities, which compose the bulk of transportation projects built in the US. While there have been limited studies on this topic, the available research indicates that the actual demand for untolled road projects exceeds forecast demand by 3-11% on average (Nicolaisen and Driscoll 2014). This is in contrast to the findings for toll roads and major rail transit projects, perhaps indicating that we are technically better at forecasting this type of project, or that the incentive structure is different because highway funds are allocated to the states by formula, instead of by competitive grants.
Your task is to take the lessons from these sources, and discuss how they apply to transportation forecasting in the present day. Are they even relevant when facing the potential emergence of automated vehicles?
Consider the following issues in your discussion:
- Silver discussed forecasting from the perspective of a variety of fields. Which of his lessons are relevant to transportation, and which are not?
- Wachs starts from the assertion that we live in a word dominated by utilitarian thinking. Do you think this is still true, 28 years later? Do you think it was true then?
- What specific actions would you propose to improve travel forecasting?
Topic 2: Truth decay
Read the following:
Kavanagh, Jennifer, and Michael D. Rich. “Truth Decay.” Product Page, 2018. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html.
Wachs, Martin. “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy.” Business and Professional Ethics Journal 9, no. 1 & 2 (1990): 141–57.
Rob Bain. “Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting* Revisited – Consultants in the Dock.” Local Transport Today, September 4, 2015. https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/local-transport-today/news/46523/ethics-and-advocacy-in-forecasting-revisited--consultants-in-the-dock.
Tolk, Andreas, Brian L. Heath, Martin Ihrig, Jose J. Padilla, Ernest H. Page, E. Dante Suarez, Claudia Szabo, Paul Weirich, and Levent Yilmaz. “Epistemology of Modeling and Simulation.” In Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, 1152–1166. IEEE Press, 2013.
All three consider issues of accuracy, objectivity, and credibility. As transportation engineers we are assigned the task of providing objective information to make decisions about transportation infrastructure and systems. (We strive for this information to be as accurate as possible, but especially when forecasting, we are held to the standard of providing the best possible information at the time, even if that information is later shown to be inaccurate. We also strive to maintain our credibility.)
Your task is to consider major decisions about transportation that we are facing in the present day, such as how to accommodate automated vehicles.
The era in which Wachs considered the ethics of forecasting was one in which large government projects--such as the build out of the interstate highway system--dominated transportation. We are now facing an era where public funding for transportation projects is much more limited (The federal gas tax has not increased in 25 years, and has not kept up with inflation or fuel efficiency increases. And most states are in a similar situation.) At the same time, the private sector is investing billions of dollars to develop new transportation technology. This includes both Detroit and Silicon Valley.
As we consider how this technology will be used, and how it will interact with the transportation system, how can we make decisions for the public based on the best possible information? How can we distinguish objective information from that which serves a particular interest?
Topic 3: Engineers rule the world
Read the following:
Kurt. Vonnegut. Player Piano. New York: Delacorte Press, Delacorte Press/Seymour Lawrence, 1952.
Vardi, Moshe. “Humans, Machines, and the Future of Work.” In Ada Lovelace Symposium 2015- Celebrating 200 Years of a Computer Visionary. Ada Lovelace Symposium ’15. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1145/2867731.2867733.
In his first novel, published in 1952, Kurt Vonnegut envisions a future in which machines have automated both menial labor and menial calculations. In this world, the engineers have the skills needed to fix and advance the machines, and have become the ruling class.
Moshe Vardi is a computer scientist with expertise in artificial intelligence, and a member of the National Academy of Science and the National Academy of Engineering. In his lecture at the UK College of Engineering (https://uknow.uky.edu/uk-happenings/lecture-humans-machines-and-future-work-thursday) he discussed the implications of automation on the future of work.
In the present day, automated vehicles are being rapidly developed. As transportation engineers, we are faced with the task of determining how those vehicles can and should interact with the rest of the transportation system, and with the transportation sector of our economy and our society. Your essay should consider this interaction, and propose steps to be taken to promote the public health, safety and welfare.
Optional:
Listen to:
Madrigal, Alexis. Containers. Accessed March 14, 2018. https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/containers/id1209559177?mt=2.
Discuss what the history of containerization can tell us about what to expect from autonomous driving systems.