Thoughts for future directions.
- Look for under-reporting in the 2019 WA private school state data. Under-reporting could artifically inflate the estimate of change.
- Incorporate the federal version of the WA private school data. https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pss/pssdata.asp
- Incorporate the state 2022/2023 year-end data.
- Extract the month-to-month headcount data from the state. This is an interesting indicator of migration trends. (Local birth typically enter school at start-of-year, but not mid-year - migration at the start of the year and mid-year).
- Re-run for other districts. They are facing enrollment shortfalls and are similarly prohibited by the state for raising money locally to bridge short term deficits.
- Try to model school migration based on housing trends. We all know private enrollment is correlated with home pric. However, separating cause from effect is challenging.