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Champions League Matchday Monte Carlo Simulation ⚽🎲

R Version Twitter Thread

A model simulating the final Champions League matchday 50,000 times to predict league standings and qualification probabilities. Includes an interactive Shiny dashboard for exploring results.

📌 Key Features

  • Monte Carlo simulations of match outcomes using betting odds and historical score distributions
  • Interactive Shiny dashboard for visualizing team-specific probabilities
  • Reproducible workflows with full code and data transparency (included csv-files)

🧮 Methodology

1. Probability Estimation

  • Match Outcome Probabilities: Derived from betting odds using implied probability calculations
  • Score Distributions: Conditional probabilities based on 5+ years of historical match data

2. Simulation Engine

for (sim in 1:50000) {
  # 1. Reset league table
  # 2. Simulate match outcomes using:
  #    - Odds-derived win/draw probabilities
  #    - Historical score distributions
  # 3. Update league standings
  # 4. Aggregate results
}