Intervention probability function

[ChrisRackauckas]

3. We are interested in determining how effective it would be to institute a mandatory mask mandate for the duration of the next six weeks. What is the probability of staying below 6000 cumulative deaths if we institute an indefinite mask mandate starting May 1, 2020?

[ChrisRackauckas]

What is the latest date we can impose a mandatory mask mandate over the next six weeks to ensure, with 90% probability, that cumulative deaths do not exceed 6000? Can you characterize the following relationship: for every day that we delay implementing a mask mandate, we expect cumulative deaths (over the six-week timeframe) to go up by X?

[ChrisRackauckas]

When this is done it needs to get captured in a tutorial