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119 changes: 108 additions & 11 deletions design/demand/external.html
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<ul class="md-nav__list" data-md-component="toc" data-md-scrollfix>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-internal-model" class="md-nav__link">
External Internal Model
<a href="#external-model-estimation-of-trip-counts-by-type" class="md-nav__link">
External Model Estimation of Trip Counts by Type
</a>

</li>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-external-model" class="md-nav__link">
External External Model
<a href="#external-model-design-overview" class="md-nav__link">
External Model Design Overview
</a>

<nav class="md-nav" aria-label="External Model Design Overview">
<ul class="md-nav__list">

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-internal-destination-choice-model" class="md-nav__link">
External-Internal Destination Choice Model
</a>

</li>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-internal-toll-choice-model" class="md-nav__link">
External-Internal Toll Choice Model
</a>

</li>

</ul>
</nav>

</li>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#sources" class="md-nav__link">
Sources
</a>

</li>
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<ul class="md-nav__list" data-md-component="toc" data-md-scrollfix>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-internal-model" class="md-nav__link">
External Internal Model
<a href="#external-model-estimation-of-trip-counts-by-type" class="md-nav__link">
External Model Estimation of Trip Counts by Type
</a>

</li>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-model-design-overview" class="md-nav__link">
External Model Design Overview
</a>

<nav class="md-nav" aria-label="External Model Design Overview">
<ul class="md-nav__list">

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-internal-destination-choice-model" class="md-nav__link">
External-Internal Destination Choice Model
</a>

</li>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-internal-toll-choice-model" class="md-nav__link">
External-Internal Toll Choice Model
</a>

</li>

</ul>
</nav>

</li>

<li class="md-nav__item">
<a href="#external-external-model" class="md-nav__link">
External External Model
<a href="#sources" class="md-nav__link">
Sources
</a>

</li>
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<h1 id="external-models">External Models<a class="headerlink" href="#external-models" title="Permanent link"></a></h1>
<p>Details aggregate external models.</p>
<h2 id="external-internal-model">External Internal Model<a class="headerlink" href="#external-internal-model" title="Permanent link"></a></h2>
<h2 id="external-external-model">External External Model<a class="headerlink" href="#external-external-model" title="Permanent link"></a></h2>
<p>The external aggregate travel models predict characteristics of US-SD and SD-US/MX travel behavior for all non-commercial, non-visitor vehicle trips and selected transit trips. Note that non-commercial MX-SD trips are forecast in the crossborder model, and non-commercial SD-US and SD-MX trips are forecast in the resident model.</p>
<p><img alt="" src="../../images/design/external_external_county_cordons.png" /></p>
<h2 id="external-model-estimation-of-trip-counts-by-type">External Model Estimation of Trip Counts by Type<a class="headerlink" href="#external-model-estimation-of-trip-counts-by-type" title="Permanent link"></a></h2>
<p>The total count of trips by production and attraction location was estimated in a series of steps:</p>
<ol>
<li>The number of crossborder trips made by Mexican residents to attractions in San Diego was previously determined.</li>
<li>The trips in the resident travel survey were expanded to estimate the total number of trips made by San Diego residents to attractions in Mexico.</li>
<li>To derive an estimate of the number of US-MX trips, the number of MX-SD (1) and SD-MX (2) trips was subtracted from the total number of border-crossings.<ul>
<li>The distribution of US-MX trips among external stations on the US-side of San Diego County will be assumed to be proportional to the total volume at each external station, regardless of the point of entry at the Mexican border.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The number of US-MX trips was then subtracted from the total number of trips in the SCAG cordon survey to arrive at an estimate of the combined total of US-US, US-SD, and SD-US trips with routes through San Diego County.</li>
<li>Finally, the actual amounts of US-US, US-SD, and SD-US trips at each external station were estimated from the remaining trips (4) according to their proportions in the successfully geocoded responses in the SCAG cordon survey.</li>
</ol>
<h2 id="external-model-design-overview">External Model Design Overview<a class="headerlink" href="#external-model-design-overview" title="Permanent link"></a></h2>
<p>The behavioral characteristics of the different types of external trip were derived from the various data sources available as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>US-US trips: a fixed external station OD trip matrix was estimated from the SCAG cordon survey.<ul>
<li><em>/src/main/emme/toolbox/model/external_external.py</em></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>US-MX trips: a fixed external station OD trip matrix was estimated from the SCAG cordon survey, Customs and Border Protection vehicle counts, and Mexican resident border-crossing survey as described in the previous section.<ul>
<li><em>/src/main/emme/toolbox/model/external_external.py</em></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>US-SD trips: rates of vehicle trips per household for each external county were developed from the SCAG cordon survey, and the trips were distributed to locations in San Diego County according to a destination choice model estimated from the interregional survey.<ul>
<li>Intermediate stops and transit trips are not modeled in this segment due to the small contribution of these events to the total demand in the segment.</li>
<li><em>/src/main/emme/toolbox/model/external_internal.py</em></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="external-internal-destination-choice-model">External-Internal Destination Choice Model<a class="headerlink" href="#external-internal-destination-choice-model" title="Permanent link"></a></h3>
<p>The external-internal destination choice model distributes the EI trips to destinations within San Diego County. The EI destination choice model explanatory variables are:</p>
<ul>
<li>Distance</li>
<li>The size of each sampled MGRA</li>
</ul>
<p>Diurnal and vehicle occupancy factors are then applied to the total daily trip tables to distribute the trips among shared ride modes and different times of day.</p>
<h3 id="external-internal-toll-choice-model">External-Internal Toll Choice Model<a class="headerlink" href="#external-internal-toll-choice-model" title="Permanent link"></a></h3>
<p>The trips are then split among toll and non-toll paths according to a simplified toll choice model. The toll choice model included the following explanatory variables:</p>
<ul>
<li>In-vehicle-time</li>
<li>Toll cost</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="sources">Sources<a class="headerlink" href="#sources" title="Permanent link"></a></h2>
<p>information primarily taken from this SANDAG document: <a href="https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/data-and-research/applied-research-and-performance-monitoring/surveys/appendix-t-SANDAG-travel-demand-model-documentation.pdf">link to pdf</a></p>



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