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actexp_analysis.jl
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### A Pluto.jl notebook ###
# v0.19.11
using Markdown
using InteractiveUtils
# This Pluto notebook uses @bind for interactivity. When running this notebook outside of Pluto, the following 'mock version' of @bind gives bound variables a default value (instead of an error).
macro bind(def, element)
quote
local iv = try Base.loaded_modules[Base.PkgId(Base.UUID("6e696c72-6542-2067-7265-42206c756150"), "AbstractPlutoDingetjes")].Bonds.initial_value catch; b -> missing; end
local el = $(esc(element))
global $(esc(def)) = Core.applicable(Base.get, el) ? Base.get(el) : iv(el)
el
end
end
# ╔═╡ 352c94b0-2ac7-11ed-0bee-c79b78ff33e4
# ╠═╡ show_logs = false
begin
using DataFramesMeta
using RData
using CodecBzip2
using ExperienceAnalysis
using Dates
using DayCounts
using ActuaryUtilities
using PlutoUI
using Plots
end
# ╔═╡ f1fab0ba-4df8-4481-a153-1fe46682aa24
md"""# `actexp` R pacakge analysis
This notebook shows how to perform similiar analysis as the very nice [actexp](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/actxps/index.html) R package.
At the end, we include examples of interactive slicing/visualization of the results.
"""
# ╔═╡ 0bbf919c-f709-4d66-a62d-f509865d51c1
md" ## Grabbing the data"
# ╔═╡ e14a97ed-fd1c-44f1-9a01-075ddcbdb195
data = download("https://github.com/mattheaphy/actxps/raw/main/data/census_dat.rda")
# ╔═╡ b49bf5f4-71c0-4fe8-835d-245bf02b3e20
rdata = load(data)
# ╔═╡ 7be75c93-2702-4f2c-938c-4d7791adf27e
md"## Perform the study calculations"
# ╔═╡ 32cfa16c-c4ef-4c6a-9018-2bdac485f50b
md"
### Study Parameters & Filters"
# ╔═╡ bd429a77-41ec-46a0-831a-b9688a2720a6
md""" Issue-date end:
$(@bind study_end PlutoUI.DatePicker(default=Date(2019,12,31)))
"""
# ╔═╡ 737ae61c-ae93-4299-832f-9624cb1e6d7f
md"""
Ages: $(@bind age_range PlutoUI.RangeSliderNotebook.RangeSlider(0.0:1:100))
"""
# ╔═╡ 91044622-0bc7-4e13-bf90-c77b729a41c7
md""" Issue-date start:
$(@bind start_date PlutoUI.DatePicker(default=minimum(rdata["census_dat"].issue_date)))
"""
# ╔═╡ 60b0f809-081b-4fca-91aa-1bff3d3da463
md""" Issue-date end:
$(@bind end_date PlutoUI.DatePicker(default=maximum(rdata["census_dat"].issue_date)))
"""
# ╔═╡ 1836fc71-8b1d-4e42-8e53-b44843f5fcd9
function exp_df(raw_df)
# filters
df = @chain raw_df begin
@subset(in.(:age,Ref(age_range)))
@subset(in.(:issue_date,Ref(start_date:Day(1):end_date)))
end
# calculate exposures. For more see tutorial on ExperienceAnalysis.jl's docs
to = [ismissing(d) ? study_end : min(study_end,d) for d in df.term_date]
continued = df.status .== "Surrender"
df.exposure = exposure.(
ExperienceAnalysis.Anniversary(Year(1)),
df.issue_date,
to,
continued
)
df = flatten(df,:exposure)
# Here, you can customize the interpretation of a calendar year.
# See the DayCounts.jl pacakge for options
df.exposure_fraction = map(df.exposure) do e
yearfrac(e.from,e.to,DayCounts.Actual365Fixed())
end
# create a column with a surrender status
df.surrender = map(eachrow(df)) do r
(r.status == "Surrender") && (r.exposure.from ≤ r.term_date ≤ r.exposure.to)
end
# calculate the policy year duration with duration from ActuaryUtilities
df.pol_year = duration.(df.issue_date,[x.from for x in df.exposure])
# create an arbitrary expectation
expectation = vcat(range(0.005,0.03,10), [0.2, 0.15],fill(0.05,10))
df.expected = map(yr->expectation[yr],df.pol_year)
# return the dataframe
df
end
# ╔═╡ 2c690e6b-38a2-4c2b-a7c1-8c04ad4f8bad
md"### Actual and Expected Plot"
# ╔═╡ 37a4e241-4bd5-4169-9bfd-7ae9328e18c1
md" The aggregate average surrender decrement"
# ╔═╡ 1689407d-e95d-438f-9e04-d76b80ae6608
e = @chain rdata["census_dat"] begin
@subset(:age .∈ Ref(age_range))
@subset(:issue_date .∈ Ref(start_date:Day(1):end_date))
exp_df()
end
# ╔═╡ a71a678f-473a-4063-971e-13ef2b4f4155
sum(e.surrender) / sum(e.exposure_fraction)
# ╔═╡ 0d2c3d03-3398-4a51-a7f5-250111547fa8
results = combine(groupby(e,[:inc_guar,:pol_year])) do gdf
(
claims = sum(gdf.surrender),
exposures = sum(gdf.exposure_fraction),
observed = sum(gdf.surrender) / sum(gdf.exposure_fraction),
expected = sum(gdf.expected .* gdf.exposure_fraction) / sum(gdf.exposure_fraction),
a_e = sum(gdf.surrender) / sum(gdf.expected .* gdf.exposure_fraction)
)
end
# ╔═╡ 86c43368-c50e-449d-b918-fd55773f1a6c
let
p = plot()
for gdf in groupby(results,:inc_guar)
plot!(gdf.pol_year,gdf.observed,label="Observed")
# @show keys(gdf)
plot!(gdf.pol_year,gdf.expected,line=(:dash),label="Expected")
plot!(xlim=(0,18))
end
p
end
# ╔═╡ 1acd69b1-c70a-4bfc-a0dc-fc54d98e08a5
e.issue_date .∈ Ref(start_date:Day(1):end_date)
# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001
PLUTO_PROJECT_TOML_CONTENTS = """
[deps]
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Dates = "ade2ca70-3891-5945-98fb-dc099432e06a"
DayCounts = "44e31299-2c53-5a9b-9141-82aa45d7972f"
ExperienceAnalysis = "51cd30ab-a913-41ff-9b6f-9b78880a2ac2"
Plots = "91a5bcdd-55d7-5caf-9e0b-520d859cae80"
PlutoUI = "7f904dfe-b85e-4ff6-b463-dae2292396a8"
RData = "df47a6cb-8c03-5eed-afd8-b6050d6c41da"
[compat]
ActuaryUtilities = "~3.1.0"
CodecBzip2 = "~0.7.2"
DataFramesMeta = "~0.12.0"
DayCounts = "~0.1.0"
ExperienceAnalysis = "~0.2.0"
Plots = "~1.31.7"
PlutoUI = "~0.7.40"
RData = "~0.8.3"
"""
# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000002
PLUTO_MANIFEST_TOML_CONTENTS = """
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