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AIS brief voor politieke partijen.html
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<div class="quarto-title-meta-heading">Published</div>
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<p class="date">2023-10-29</p>
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<br>
🪤
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</div><p>Beste vertegenwoordiger van [politieke partij],</p>
<p>Deze verkiezingen stem ik voor veilige kunstmatige intelligentie (AI Safety ofwel AIS).<br>
Ik schrijf om mijn zorgen te uiten en te vragen wat voor rol AIS speelt in de plannen van [politieke partij].</p>
<p>Mijn zorg is dat de mensheid controle verliest over toekomstige systemen en dat we weinig tijd hebben voor een oplossing.</p>
<section id="de-tijd-totdat-kunstmatige-intelligentie-mensen-evenaart" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="de-tijd-totdat-kunstmatige-intelligentie-mensen-evenaart">De tijd totdat kunstmatige intelligentie mensen evenaart</h2>
<p>Voordat GPT-4 was uitgebracht waren 300 experts geïnterviewd over hun verwachtingen voor toekomstige kunstmatige intelligentie.<br>
De meerderheid verwacht dat toekomstige kunstmatige intelligentie mensen zal evenaren op de meeste vlakken.<br>
Geaggregeert, verwachten ze dat dit gebeurd rond 2060. Maar voor velen was het niveau van GPT-4 een stuk hoger dan ze verwachtten.</p>
<p>Andere authoriteiten verwachten dat KI mensen een stuk eerder zal passeren.<br>
Sam Altman, de CEO van OpenAI denkt dat dit al kan gebeuren <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-talks-about-agi-gpt-5-mira-murati-8997692/">binnen 10 jaar</a>.<br>
Dario Amodel, de CEO van Anthropic denkt dat dit <a href="https://youtu.be/gAaCqj6j5sQ?si=2V3rZLiCzmjbU4sE&t=4929">binnen 2 jaar</a> kan gebeuren.<br>
Shane Legg oprichter van DeepMind, denkt dat er <a href="https://youtu.be/Kc1atfJkiJU?si=ye2JjiUVvn3WdAkI&t=2196">een 50% kans is dat KI mensen zal evenaren tijdens 2028</a>.</p>
<p>Voorspellings markten, waar mensen wedden op toekomstige gebeurtenissen, doen ook voorspellingen op de snelheid waarmee kunstmatige intelligentie verbetert.<br>
De voorspellers op Metaculus verwachten <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/">dat KI, veel menselijke taken beter doet dan mensen rond 2032</a>. Het is in de geschiedenis van die markt te zien dat de introductie van GPT-4, 8 jaar van die voorspelling af haalde.</p>
</section>
<section id="intelligentie-explosie" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="intelligentie-explosie">Intelligentie Explosie</h2>
<p>Op een gegeven moment zal KI krachtig genoeg worden dat het zelf kan bijdragen aan verbeteringen binnen KI.<br>
Waarschijnlijk gebeurt dit rond het punt dat KI de meeste menselijke taken even goed kan uitvoeren als mensen.<br>
Wanneer KI automatisch zichzelf verbetert, kunnen er jaren aan menselijk onderzoek binnen maanden of dagen door een computer wordt gedaan zonder menselijk toezicht.<br>
Deze intelligentie explosie heeft een 50% kans volgens de 300 experts.</p>
<p>Dit betekent dat kort na menselijke KI, er kunstmatige superintelligentie kan onstaan. Het is niet te voorspellen hoe krachtig dit zal zijn.<br>
Manifold, een andere voorspellings markt, verwacht een <a href="https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e">40% kans dat er superintelligentie is in 2030</a>.</p>
</section>
<section id="open-problemen-voor-het-controleren-van-toekomstige-ki" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="open-problemen-voor-het-controleren-van-toekomstige-ki">Open problemen voor het controleren van toekomstige KI</h2>
<p>Momenteel heeft de samenleving al moeite met het bijbenen van kunstmatige systemen.</p>
<ul>
<li>Beeldmateriaal wordt steeds makkelijker te falsifieren.</li>
<li>Chatbots kunnen massaal nepnieuws verspreiden.</li>
<li>Autonome wapens verschijnen.</li>
<li>Het werk van artiesten kan eenvoudig nagebootst worden.</li>
</ul>
<p>Maar deze problemen hebben nog altijd een mens aan de oorsprong staan.<br>
Naarmate KI bekwamer wordt, onstaan er risikos die zelfs de maker niet bedoelt.<br>
Daarom trekken voraanstaande KI experts aan de bel nu.</p>
<ul>
<li>Geoffrey Hinton, een van de peetvaders van KI, stopt bij Google om uit te spreken over de risikos. Hij denkt dat <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sitHS6UDMJc">binnen 5 tot 20 jaar, KI een existentiele catastrophe kan veroorzaken</a></li>
<li>Demis Hassabis, de CEO van DeepMind <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SbAgRYo8tkHwhd9Qx/deepmind-the-podcast-excerpts-on-agi">vreest voor misbruik van toekomstige systemn</a>.</li>
<li>Op de website van OpenAI staat dat ze met KI omgaan alsof <a href="https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond">de risikos existentieel zijn</a></li>
<li>Dario Amodel, de CEO van Anthropic schat in dat er een <a href="https://youtu.be/gAaCqj6j5sQ?si=W6EJczMvUJjJDEOd&t=35">10 tot 25% kans is dat KI problemen zal veroorzaken op de schaal van beschavingen</a>.</li>
<li>Elezier Yudkowsky en Nate Soares, de stichters van het AIS onderzoeksveld, verwachten niet dat de mensheid toekomstige KI zal overleven.</li>
<li>Manifold schat een <a href="https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r">7% kans op uitroeiing door KI voor 2030</a>.</li>
<li></li>
</ul>
</section>
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